Volatility continues to be the story of the day. Further, despite a trillion-dollar bailout, Greece, and frankly the Euro is in a state of flux. All this will continue to add to fear, and continue to make the dollar and gold strong. However, nothing ever moves in a straight line. So I am actually looking for a bit of a reprieve this week, likely on Monday, and a possibly a couple other days depending on the news. It would not surprise me to see an up move on Monday. There is a lot of earnings and economic news this week, but the bulk of it is from Tuesday – Thursday, so Monday seems to be a logical place for a move up. Further, on Friday there was the big sell off, but if you recall, there was an eod rally into the close. However, we must remember that things are very dicey right now, and any bit of news can spook this mkt. quickly, so I will not be going long at all without some evidence pointing me that way, and I will be nursing the positions the whole time. Now on to this week’s video:
Well we got very close to DOW 11,000, maybe close enough to call it good, but I don’t think so. I think we will see another push up from SPX and COMPQ, which will drag the DOW with it. But, I also think that if we get a big one day move above DOW 11k, then I will be looking for a sell off that same day. If it is a gradual move, then I will be leaning to more upside. There are a lot of logical resistance areas nearby on all the indices, so a move in conjunction would be the best possible scenario for a sell off. I don’t think this will be the full change of direction, just another correction. Next week there is economic data every day, with Monday having the least impact and gaining every day peaking Thursday and Friday. On top of that there are some significant financial earnings and GOOG earnings on the docket, plus more. However, lately earnings haven’t moved the mkt. as much as in the past, but if GOOG comes in to the extreme either side, you can bet that will be a mkt. mover. The same holds true for big financial names. Now it’s video time:
With the moves we saw last week, it appears volatility may be slightly increasing. However, as you will see in the video, there are signs that this may be a contained volatility. We may be stuck in a range for a while, it may be a very big range but a range none-the-less. For a while it appeared the economic news was turning sour, then this last week it once again started to improve a little, or more appropriately, is coming out a little better than expected. However, unemployment is still incredibly high and I still think this mkt. is clearly over bought. It can continue to be like this for quite some time, but the key to me is to be ready to react when we see signs that it is starting to turn. One way to do this I mentioned last week; watch not so much the news, but how the mkt. reacts to the news. Does it consistently sell good news? To me that is a sign that things are changing. Right now it is still rising on “good” news, so it feels like this mkt. still has some buying behind it. Video time:
First of all, forgive me; but during the video I had the NCAA games on in the background and I am an NCAA junkie, so I was a little distracted. Still the information is there. Basically I am undecided whether or not we are seeing a top or a consolidation for a move upward. If the EUR is any sign, then it looks as if the dollar is going to drop Monday morning, ergo the mkt. will rise. There is a slew of economic data coming out next week, which will also be a mkt. mover. What I will be watching most closely is how the mkt. reacts to bte or wte news, not short-term but throughout the day. There are some really good stock plays out there, but the indices are strictly day trading for me right now. On to the video:
Last week was grueling, as expected and even flatter than expected. Friday was poised to be a pretty volatile day and it clearly disappointed. The mixed bag of economic news didn’t help. But now we head into expiration week with a bunch of pent up energy and a whole lot of economic data to contend with. It seems to me that this mkt. feels toppy, but at the same time it wants to push higher. Lately opx exp week has tended to be an up week, and since we have slightly broken out on the indices it could easily be the same thing. The NASDAQ continues to be the clear leader with the DOW the clear lager. Now onto this week’s video:
Once again we are living in breakout city. Almost all the indices have broken out of their nearest resistance, and, for the most part, seem poised to push even higher. Most of the economic news coming out has been wte, and surprisingly so. However, the jobs numbers have been bte, still horrible, but bte nonetheless. This seems to be what is pushing this mkt. higher. Ignore the bad and run with the good, pretty much the standard for a year. Personally, I still do not think the fundamentals of our country are good, but that doesn’t matter. What matters is how I can trade well, and right now the easier trades are to the upside. So I hold my nose, and trade. The last two weeks my trades have been pretty mixed between puts and calls. So far, all my call trades have worked and about 1/2 my put trades have worked. So trading against this trend is much harder, as it should be.
In my perfect scenario, I would like to see a pullback to my support lines, then I would have some great places to go long. I still see a lot of individual charts coming up against resistance, and they are all attractive to me because they have clear stops. As stated in the video, the VIX has dropped into the gray box of death, and I will be looking for some up movement. If it does breakdown, then I will be looking at 16 to offer support. It seems to me, barring any unforeseen news, Monday & Tuesday will probably keep moving sideways to up. There are some earnings coming out, but nothing too mkt. moving. Now on to this week’s video:
I have a new mike, and I noticed a hum and some odd sounds, I apologize. I will try and to have a new mike by next week.
We have a busy news week ahead, and I expect that to add to the volatility. I have noticed that the news is starting to turn decidedly bearish and I would expect that to continue this week. I also expect that if we have some big down movement, then our President will be on T.V. to tell us about all the jobs that we did not, or may not have lost because of the stimulus package.
In this week’s video, I pull back and look at some monthly charts, and from my eyes, we are slowly turning down. We have some small signals that are starting to show that the winds of change are blowing. In the video you will also be reminded that the current rally we are in started on March 6, 2009, one year ago. I have a feeling this will be an exciting week, and I can’t wait to trade it. Trade well and prosper. AKOT
What surprised me about this last week is that we did not have one day that approached the volume from the week prior. I really expected a volume pop on Friday, with some selling. The v was better than the rest of the week, but very unimpressive and uninspiring, ergo so was the action for the day. This is the last week of trading for February and we have potential mkt. moving news Tues- Thurs. I am sticking to my theory that big v days will lead to selling. I am expecting a pretty directional day tomorrow, but I will have to watch the first 1/2 hour to hour to see which direction that will be. Monthly the indices look toppy, weekly the indices seem to be moving off the current up trend, and daily they are in a definite up trend right now. On to the video, trade well and prosper:
Yes I am back in America, back in Alaska, and back in the mkt. Sorry for the long absence, but man between the beach, surfing, exploring, my wife and friends, I just could not find time to give the mkt. the justice it demands. So I decided not to blog until I got my head back into the game. My head is freezing cold, but I am back in the game. I actually spent some time with a couple traders in Costa Rica and learned a lot of new stuff. I will be incorporating it just as soon as I run some tests etc., but I am very excited.
Things are looking a little different this time, similar to the move this past July. A lot more volatility, and we took out a previous low, both of which occurred in July, and you know how that worked out. Back then I thought that was signaling a top, and I think the same now, but I am much more cautious this time. Now onto this week’s video.
All right, I thought I would start the new year reviewing what I am doing here and answering some common questions:
Most of the charts I post are swing trade set ups. Not all of them will work, and I don’t trade them all. What I do is find charts that look like they are about to move, and then I try to capture that move. I may post 20-30 stocks a week and I try to play the 5 -10 that look like they are panning out the way I thought they would.
Before trading any chart, you need to do your own research, especially for news, earnings, splits, meetings, etc. I don’t always take the time to look for this stuff on the charts I post. In fact I usually only do it on the ones that I am considering putting my $$ into. That is often what helps me narrow down between several trades.
I base most of my trades of technical analysis, specifically support and resistance, moving averages, stoch RSI and more. I don’t always post the charts as I look at them for the simple reason that they look very cluttered and hard to see that way. I often take off several indicators etc. to keep the charts pleasing, simple, and clean.
My goal is to post Sunday – Thursday. Wed. in the winter is a crap shoot and the posts are usually short, unless there is something spectacular going on. Every once in a while I will post on a Saturday or Friday, but I try to step away from my computer and spend time with my family.
The main reason I write this blog is to keep a type of journal and to make myself accountable for my trades. Obviously I am not always right, not even close. I have learned over the years to have a bias, but to not lock into that bias so that you can’t quickly change your trade or your mind. I will always try to have an idea where I think the market is headed, not only to get into trades, but to get out of trades as well. What I post I believe to be true, I am not trying to trick anybody, I have no reason to lie, I don’t trade enough shares to influence the mkt. either way, so what you see is what I am thinking at the time. I appreciate any alternate thoughts or interpretations.
Now on to some of the questions I get.
I can’t answer all the questions I get from the meebo chat. The main reason for this is because if I am not right at my computer and you send me a message, I will not see it until I return to my computer. Then if you are not online, and I respond, you don’t get the message. If you really want me to answer, the best way is to post in the comments section. I get all of those via email, and I do my best to answer each and every one of them.
I use Prophet charts for most of the charts I post.
I know the SPX is a better overall gauge of the mkt., but I post the INDU / DOW charts because that is what you hear on the news, that is what America hears about so it affects sentiment.
I don’t mind taking chart requests and I will give you my honest analysis.
No I don’t generally research company internals. I would do it on a company that I was intending to invest in long-term, but that is not what this blog is about.
I do trade other styles, long-term investing and selling covered calls. But those are both slow-moving, 6-10 trades a year, so they are not as exciting to write about.
I post a lot of charts on twitter / chart.ly, so you can follow me there if you would like. akoptiontrader tweets You can also see them on the upper right corner of this blog.
Well that should do it for now. In this week’s video I go over my thoughts going into the new year. Yes I still think we are over bought, but we can stay over bought for a while, so my bias is for a significant correction early in this year. We have a lot of potential mkt. moving news out this week, so be nimble.
My New Year’s resolution; trade better and prosper, and I pray the same to all of you.
Weekly Stock Market Analysis and Video 4-11-10
Tags: stock charts, stock market analysis, Technical Analysis, trading stocks and options, video
Well we got very close to DOW 11,000, maybe close enough to call it good, but I don’t think so. I think we will see another push up from SPX and COMPQ, which will drag the DOW with it. But, I also think that if we get a big one day move above DOW 11k, then I will be looking for a sell off that same day. If it is a gradual move, then I will be leaning to more upside. There are a lot of logical resistance areas nearby on all the indices, so a move in conjunction would be the best possible scenario for a sell off. I don’t think this will be the full change of direction, just another correction. Next week there is economic data every day, with Monday having the least impact and gaining every day peaking Thursday and Friday. On top of that there are some significant financial earnings and GOOG earnings on the docket, plus more. However, lately earnings haven’t moved the mkt. as much as in the past, but if GOOG comes in to the extreme either side, you can bet that will be a mkt. mover. The same holds true for big financial names. Now it’s video time: