Well the day started out pretty much as I expected. In fact the day in a whole, all but 30 minutes of it was pretty much as I envisioned. I know the markets are going to do what the markets are going to do, but something just seems off to me. Watching intra-day I saw a lot of weird movement going on, even in the VIX. I hear a lot of talk of mkt. manipulation, and I don’t know if that is true or not, but man it sure would make sense. At any rate, someone or some group desperately does not want this market to go lower. The problem is we have all seen what happens when the mkt. becomes falsely inflated, and right now I think we are falsely inflated. When you look at the charts today, look at them closely and tell me if I am crazy, because they sure seem clear to me. I appreciate all the chats and messages and emails etc., but I would also encourage you to go ahead and comment on the blog, all those come to my iphone and I will reply as soon as I can. Also, that way everyone else can see your thoughts which are just as valuable as mine.
The DOW still looks like is topping. There is more wick there than a Yankee Candle store, and wick = indecision which in turn generally means a bottom area or top area. We are still on the 200 ma, but we are above it, and the v is declining, to me this chart looks extremely poised to turn south, it is just taking its time.
The S&P 500 on a bit of a cleaner chart. You can see how well the up trend worked until the May breakdown. It then promptly jumped back into the warmth of the channel and blew through the 200 ma without much problem at all. The resistance has come from Jan’s hi. And this resistance is strong as you can see. It has pulled back to make another run at it and without that I don’t think it can break through.
The NAS is kind of hanging out in no man’s land. It has broke beneath the straight up up channel, forming a doji waiting to fall like a raindrop.
Same chart on the 30 min. candles. You can clearly see the gap waiting to be filled, and the gap that was filled today. You can also see that wicked wick that was left near the end of the day. I have this odd feeling when this does drop, it will be fast and furious and it will feed on itself.
The $QQQQ clearly consolidated for nearly a month and rallied, when I thought it may fall. The v has been steadily declining and we appear to be consolidating again. It seems we have a hanging man followed by a doji almost shooting star. A lot of volatility which is normal for a thin summer mkt. If you watched the video, it had some great charts, and I mentioned I had a lot more… well here are a few of them.
ONXX, broke out beneath the wedge as we expected and now it has rallied back up to the resistance line, another great short is imminent.
Here is MYGN, and we had been watching this for an up move a while back off this up trend line. If we close beneath the 200 ma with decent v, then short, if we bounce then long. I love choices!
I present you MHK, it formed a nice cup and handle and rallied hard like it should have, and now it has backed back down and bounced off the inv. neck line, and immediately found resistance, with the 200 ma and $41.30 line and top of the gap. For some reason I like this to drop from here with a an easy stop above 4$1.45.
This is a cute little wedge on IR. I would say short here if confirmed and long on the 200 ma. 2 fer one.
Let us finish with ESI and this brutal wedge. Although we have a gap up there, I have a hunch we are going to see this break support and drop. If it does, then easy short.
In closing: I am still watching for the sell off, and I still think it could be this week. In fact I thought if we finished down not too much, say -80 or so, that would be a great start. Too much down and we would’ve had a bounce. I am truly perplexed by these end of day moves. They have always been around, but not the extreme that we have seen lately. We keep watching and we keep nimble. Trade well and prosper. AKOT
Weekly Video 1-10-2010
Tags: ak option trader, akoptiontrader, candlestick charts, chart patterns, day trading, DOW, markets, Nasdaq, s&p 500, spx, stock commentary, stock market charts, Trading
As much as I expected to have a clear direction by now, we obviously do not. V has been average but I expected more and it has led to mixed singles throughout indices. The NASDAQ seems to have the most strength right now, but the major players don’t seem to be the ones fueling the move, in fact, GOOG and AAPL are some of the weaker ones in the sector, with a strong day Friday. Going forward, we don’t have any economic data on Monday, but some every day the rest of the week. Thursday, once again has the heaviest mkt. effecting data with initial claims and retail. Right now we are slightly trending up, the DOW is right on long-term resistance, the others have all broken through. Economically, things are still bearish but with (false) shades of improvement, the charts are still slightly bullish but still look like they are topping. So let’s check out this week’s video, shall we?