Is tomorrow Thursday?

All right so you are thinking man he missed that call today, but did I really? Remember I had my days wrong and yet I was looking for the gap up off of the good jobs numbers. Well that catalyst wasn’t there today, but it still pretty much ran as expected. Instead of a gap up, it gapped down and then rallied right back up to the zero, before selling off. The exact type of move I was looking for today, but in reverse. Now things have changed a bit for tomorrow. It seems like most of the indices are very close to support and it makes sense to me to see a positive move tomorrow, possibly even a big one. But I would expect more of a moderate move up. I still expect the data tomorrow pre-open to be bte, and depending on what happens with the euro and Greece, that should be enough to push this thing up a bit. I would expect some selling off of any big move up intra-day, so it could be one of those really up and down type of days, really hard to trade intra-day. Oh yeh, remember those SPY calls, well I sold them about 30 minutes in for a .40 loss per, manageable. If I had held em longer I would’ve actually got out even to up a little, but believe me I was happy with what I got, after my idiotic error last night.  Chart time:

Well I thought we would see a black candle today, I just didn’t think it would be this far above yesterday’s white candle. I think this wants to drop a little more, maybe to the 22 area.

The SPX formed a spinning top doji today, not the strongest of reversal signals. It also went below the 50 ma today, but did not reach support. Yet I could still see this bouncing a little from here.

You can see the NAS has pretty much the same thing going on here. Still it dropped a little more percentage wise than the SPX. Usually when it moves out of the bollinger bands like this, it tends to make a move back in, at least a little.

The RUT was once again the leader, falling over 1.5%. It stalled out on the bottom bollinger band and very near the 50 ma. This too looks ready for a little bounce here.

FSYS is sitting on support with bullish engulfing candle. Considering the overall mkt. this seems pretty bullish to me. I would use $27.25 as my stop on a long trade.

CAT too found support, but more on a long-term up trend and off the bottom bollinger band. Easy stop on break of the 50 ma.

In closing: There has a been a significant amount of selling lately, and I am looking for some value buyers to step in soon. If the data is good in the morning, and if things quiet down overseas, then tomorrow could be the day. I will be watching the EURO very closely as it has been tipping the hand of the mkt. all week. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

The indices are flopping

So today the tides have turned a bit, just a tiny bit. Instead of the INDU being pulled up by the NAS, it was the only one that managed to stay green today. So now what we have to watch for is to see if this is the tide turning and getting ready for the pullback. I was expecting a down Monday and Tuesday this week, and the re-assessing after the FOMC on Wednesday. I am still leaning towards a down Tuesday, especially if it gaps up a little. Usually mixed mkt. days like this are difficult to trade, but I have a feeling it will give us a nice entry point or two. Chart time:

The thing I noticed about the VIX is that it has had two long-legged days in a row with an up gap in between. That tells me that the volatility is increasing throughout the day and technically speaking, there is no reason for this rally to slow down.

The INDU looks to be topping here with a big wick today, but if you look back a few short weeks ago, it teased us with a similar set-up. In fact the past set up was even better with resistance, this one is after a breakout and therefore we should be looking to go long on a pullback to support.

The SPX held up on the top resistance of this long-term channel / pennant. It looks to be poised to re-test the 20 ma again, but watch for breakouts, and the COMPQ looks very similar to this.

ALL is in a bit of a flag and although it had a bearish engulfing candle today, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a breakout to the upside.

AMZN has found some support along with a bullish engulfing candle, so I am looking for a move up from here.

XLU has been in an up trend, but it is now back at the top and I am looking for a drop.

In closing: I don’t expect a huge move tomorrow, unless something leaks regarding the FOMC on Wed. , but I am still leaning to the down side. Watch the indices to see if they are truly turning over. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Jobs are on the way

There is some definite volatility showing, up moves are not holding, down moves aren’t continuing and the indices are not moving in sync. Things seem to be a little disjointed, but still the small cap and tech looks very strong. I know it makes no sense, but for some reason DOW 11,000 seems to be a little bit of a big deal.  I still think when it is taken out, it could be one of those big wick candles that signals an interim top. Tomorrow is consumer credit news, but I think the bigger news is Thursday with the continuing and initial claims. Have you noticed that our beloved government has been prepping the mkt. for bad jobs numbers? Be patient, the jobs will come, they are on the way…. yah in the form of 16,000 more government employees to handle all the bureaucracy of healthcare. Washington Examiner ( one of hundreds). Now for some happy uplifting stuff, stock charts:

The VIX is right back on key support, and I am still waiting for that big bounce up. But I know that the more support is tested, the more likely it is to break, and this is starting to look like spring ice.

Of all the indices, the 30 stocks of the DOW seem to be the weakest. That being said, it did have a pretty nice rally off the lows of the day, but in doing so it formed a nice long-legged doji cross. If you look closely you will see that a very similar cross was the start of this current rally.

The SPX still looks pretty strong, sliding up the topside of the bollinger band. The RSI looked like it was starting to trend down but it had a nice curl up today. The MACD isn’t quite there yet, but it is on the verge. I still think the top of this current never-ending ascending pennant may be the top of this move. That means SPX 1200 +.

The NASDAQ continues to be the bellwether leading the charge. Here you see another breakout, with a slight intra-day pullback. So it broke free of that support after 8 days.

I still like the EUR/USD to test this support, and then eventually break it.

KLAC is testing the bottom of this gap with two down v days in a row. Today it formed a spin top bearish harami doji, now that’s a mouthful. I think this is primed for a drop here, but watch for it to make a run at the top of the gap. Therefore, if I trade it short, I will use $32.98 as my stop, giving it a little room to play.

A very loose inverse head and shoulders that broke out. Now it is looking to re-test the neckline on declining v. If v continues to decline into this move, then I will look for bounce off that line. But it is playable either way using it as the pivot.

I liked the action on BKS today, and I am short it right now. EZ stop at $22.80. However, looking it I need to be cognizant of the up trend that it is in.

In closing: I will be watching for continued dis-jointedness in this mkt. and I will take that to mean that some sentiment is changing. As it stands with the RUT as strong as it is, this is a speculative mkt. I am leaning towards a slightly more directional day tomorrow and my game plan is to trade that way. Look for late night quick post tomorrow, oh and btw, trade well and prosper. AKOT

Weekly Video 2/7/2010

Yes I am back in America, back in Alaska, and back in the mkt. Sorry for the long absence, but man between the beach, surfing, exploring, my wife and friends, I just could not find time to give the mkt. the justice it demands. So I decided not to blog until I got my head back into the game. My head is freezing cold, but I am back in the game. I actually spent some time with a couple traders in Costa Rica and learned a lot of new stuff. I will be incorporating it just as soon as I run some tests etc., but I am very excited.

Things are looking a little different this time, similar to the move this past July. A lot more volatility, and we took out a previous low, both of which occurred in July, and you know how that worked out. Back then I thought that was signaling a top, and I think the same now, but I am much more cautious this time. Now onto this week’s video.

Alcoa can’t wait for tomorrow….

Earnings have kicked off with a resounding “thud”. AA disappointed the mkt. and now a small degree of fear has crept in. Yet the VIX was down today, because AA came out after the close. The rest of the week we will see some NASDAQ moving earnings that will be topped off with INTC on Thursday and JPM on Friday. I expect both of those to be mkt. movers.

I have to keep it quick tonight because I am so late, and may be late all week. But keep on eye on the earnings and watch how the mkt. moves. Will it sell off on bad news only to fill morning gaps and rally or will it sell off and keep selling. If it is good news, did we do the opposite. These are things I will be watching for to see what the sentiment is and where we may be heading. Often times the mkts. reaction to earnings news can be a signal of things to come, especially early on when we only have a few companies reporting. On to some charts:

The VIX broke waaaayyyyy down today. It looks like it really wants to head straight to that $16 support line. But I think we will see a pop tomorrow, at least initially in the morning.

The DOW , after seeming to be the weaker of the indices, took over the strength role today. I don’t think that will last too long as AA earnings should have a clear impact on the DOW. However, it did breakout today, while the others lagged, perhaps in anticipation of good earnings from AA.

We kind of have a weak hammer formation here, but nothing to write home about. The NAS was very weak today, held up only by the DOW strength. GOOG and AAPL both showed signs of weakness and as the Googapp goes, so goes the NAS.

I have a weird tick on my SPX so I am using the SPY instead today. Note a slight bearish divergence into this up move. These divergences have not been playing out well, but I still like to note them. The SPY is sliding up the top bb, careful not to pierce it. It is still over-bought and still rallying. I think if we see a v pop tomorrow, we see selling.

LNG looks to be breaking out. It took out the 200 on clear strength and v, a strong sign. I would look for a correction, maybe back down to the 200 ma and then some more up movement.

As I said, INTC reports on Thursday so keep an eye on it. It opened right at the open of that high candle from Oct, but failed to break above. Going into earnings, if the consensus is that they will do bte, then I think we keep rising here. If worry sneaks in, then some fast selling.

Check this out, perhaps some foreshadowing on AA. A great doji setup going into e. Maybe somebody knew something. I am curious, was this rally from Dec in anticipation of great e? If so, then I think we will see at least $14 before the move is over.

In closing: I have a lot to do this week to get ready for our trip to Costa Rica this weekend. I will do my best to post at night this week, but no promises. Watch e closely, see what the sentiment is going in , and if it returns after the initial move in the morning. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

a lesson learned cost me some earns.

Well what should have been quite a fabulous day turned into disappointment for ye old AKOT. I managed to peg near the top of the move today on the QQQQ. I chose cubes because they were the lagger in the morning, holding back the rest of the mkt. for rallying. After the housing ISM news came out much bte, this mkt. should have shot to the moon, up 250 or so. It did not, in fact it looked very weak, so the decision was made to buy some puts, which I did and the mkt. fell and fell and fell. Then I broke one of my golden rules, set the stops at the tops. Look at the following 5 min chart:

I have annotated my entry and where I should have put the stops, that I did not use. I was surprised how quickly the mkt. reversed and jumped in, and as soon as I did I said to myself ” there will be some more upside you dufus. That would be a better entry.” I was right, but I gave myself to 41.60 to get out and we did not get there. So the down move came and we dropped like a rock. I prefer stepping down, like we did on Friday, it makes it so easy to position stops. If you see the red square to the right, that is what talked me out of keeping my stop, those cute little hanging men candles, followed by a  hammer and even better hammer told me this was a false move up, I was wrong, or perhaps I was trading on hope. At one point I was up over 50% on my position, and I was shooting for ?? The blue arrow to the farthest is where I got out with a 10% gain. Better than a loss? Not here. I should have been spanked for being a fool. Further, I forgot to peak at my daily chart to see where we were, and that is when I noticed we hit some of my resistance lines. So right after selling, I went long the SPY with about a minute left in the day. So learn from my mistakes. If I had looked at my big chart, I would’ve definitely sold:

As you can see we reached down and tagged my support line picture perfect, and this would’ve been a clue to me. I didn’t use some great stop zones, and I would’ve surely sold for the 50% and got right back in on another drop. A very amateurish mistake on my part, and it won’t happen again.

The VIX did fall a bit like I thought on yesterday’s video, but it found some support for sure. I thought it would fall a little more than this, and it probably will, but it is nice to see support is doing its job. The VIXN was up today, hence my QQQQ play.

The DOW bounced picture perfect of the current up trend, but it also bounced right into resistance. It is in a breakout zone, and continues to be the strongest of the indices.

The NAS also hit the up trend and held up on what I think may be a “gasp” neckline forming. If it is, we shall bounce some from here, perhaps even as high as 2,150, but I doubt it will be that high. This mkt. feels very scared right now.

and perhaps it has good reason to be scared. Check out the RUT monthly chart with this nice near perfect tweezer top, 20 ma still moving below the 50 ma, the RSI looks to be crossing back down and it appears this rally is stifled, unless we breach above the 625 area.

The IYR looks to be forming a very nice support line with a long-legged doji today. I think we bounce from here up to the near 42.50 area.

RIG also seems to trying to form support and it looks like it is due for a bounce before breaking through the support and perhaps retesting that 200 ma, with some stops along the way. We could certainly see a h&s formation if we rally up to the $87 area in the next several days.

Finally let’s finish with a little FAST. I think this is poised for a bounce off the 200 ma and with the RSI so low ready to rally. The up v was pretty pitiful today, so I would keep on eye on that, but it makes sense to me.

 

In closing: We have come against support on multiple indices and I think that will likely give us a bounce. But I really think all up moves are only temporary reprieves and places to load up on shorts, or play long like I am right now, for short-term. Remember, we have news every day and any overnight play could be very volatile and risky so be cautious and put your stops at the tops. AKOT

 

 

NASDAQ vs. DOW, a battle of the bulls vs. bears

Well I wish I would’ve just thrown caution to the wind and bot those calls at the close yesterday, but who knew the recession was over. Thank goodness. It’s all clear, we can all go long now. Now that I got that out of my system, I am not surprised we moved up, in fact I would’ve expected a couple of up days during this down move, but now I am not so sure. In fact, I took a little bit of a risk and bot some Q puts right at the close, so we shall see how that pans out in the morning. We did not reach all the support targets but we took out some of them. The DOW appears the strongest to me and that is thanks to AA, CAT, AXP, BAC and a few more. Onto the charts:

If you notice on here I am pointing out where the 50 and 20 moving averages just about crossed. The were coming together which is what we look for in a trend change, but they are separating a bit again. I don’t know how strong of support 24 will be, but 22.77, if we get that low, should offer decent support again. I am not convinced we are going that low, in fact I was surprised to see the VIX move up as fast and as much as it did the last 4 days. So some down movement was necessary for sure.

My DOW target from Tues post was in the 9600 area, we did not make it there. In fact it looks like a decent tweezer bottom formation today with a strong brk to the upside. We took out two days worth of down candles on okay v, not strong just okay. My thought is that this move was too much too fast, over 2% up on the DOW is a big day. I don’t think we will have the same type of day tomorrow but ultimately I think it will depend on the personal income and spending numbers. If those numbers are positive, then everyone will truly believe that the recession is over ( you know my thoughts on this) and we will likely see more buying. If they are wte, I expect to see some panic selling as the general public has a very short memory. My thought is that it will be lower due to the cash for clunkers program, that is my personal theory.

This one I pretty much nailed, hence me selling my puts yesterday and wanting to go long ( wish I would stop talking about that). On Tues I thought we would find support at the red trend line and viola, support in a big way. Note how close the 20 ma is, which will offer resistance. Also not that the arrow is pointing to a similar formation in a down trend, and we did not have strong follow through and ended up dropping further. I just point this out because this could repeat. Definitely not as strong as the DOW, but a good up move none-the-less.

So I can hear someone out there screaming ” you bot puts at the close! What are you doing AKOT?”" Well maybe the next two charts will help you see why. Although the DOW’s move was very impressive, it is truly only 30 big name stocks, and they have been strong. Stocks like IBM. The world will hear about and, depending on news, we may see some follow through buying in the morning. But the NAS still continues to look very weak to me. AAPL down 17 points in four days, did manage to get 5 of that back today. Still it was an inside day, and if you look at the chart, you can see I left my first support line on there, and guess where we closed today? Right on that line, I mean dead on. We did move back above the 50 ma, but not way above, and looking at the bb, this is the type of move that tends to bounce of the bbb, to make room for more down. Then….

We look at the v on the QQQQ. What do you see? in the last 12 days, every low v day similar to today was an up day followed by a down day. So this trade is based on the fact that v was low, the NAS is still the weakest (sans the RUT) the last 3 up days in this current move have all been followed by down days, I think the econ news will be bad, and tomorrow is Friday. Crazy you say; like a rabid trading fox I reply. You can celebrate with me tomorrow or mock me, we shall see together. I can’t wait.

I did look at doing some puts on the SPY, but it looked more bullish to me than the QQQQ. I see resistance in the form of the 20 ma, and previous resistance very close by, and weak v, but still it did close above yesterday’s high, and it did do a text book bounce of my support line.

XLNX, I think this is range bound. You can see my s / r levels, but I wouldn’t trade to the upside until it breaks yesterday’s high. If it breaks below support, a good short.

although all the latest candles are very black, it did bounce of the 200 ma and now the 20 ma has become resistance. I could see this popping up into that down trend line then breaking through the 200 ma.

Mister K was down 2% on an up 2% day, with huge v. That, my friends, is not good. The bbb offered support, but methinks not for long. I look for some follow through to the down side, perhaps after an inside day or two.

JPM appears to be range bound, so we should see a move up to the $49 area from here.

I have a sneaky suspicion we are going to see a break of that support very soon. Look at the top wick on today’s candle, there was a lot of selling on this thing today, a day when it should have moved up from the bottom support ( redundant I know). The bb are widening and it just feels like it wants to break down, it is definitely an art play.

I thought I would’ve seen a lot more of these today, but this was the only one that really stuck out to me. Very nice bullish engulfing candle on very good v, $85 here we come.

Like this power move off the 200 ma and a nice follow through day today of over 3%. Furthermore, on bbb and mas are staying tight, I think 13.50 is in this stocks future.

 

In closing: I really think tomorrow will depend on the econ news, but if there were no news tomorrow I would be leaning to some profit taking selling going into the weekend. We will know before the open, but always watch for over reaction on any news, a cosmic move one way or the other will almost always have a reversal, that is where you enter your trade. Trade well and have a great weekend. AKOT

Sir Top’em hat

Had to do a quick post today. I know I was expecting a down day today, but this might be even a little worse. The closer the DOW gets to 10,000, the more the bulls will want to push up to 10k, and I think that has a huge possibility of causing a reactionary sell off;Remember $100 a barrel oil? Although I am still not convinced that we will make it. Oh, I know how close we are but I think tech is holding us back, but that could be easily remedied with some bte from GOOG and IBM. Chart time:

That support on the VIX held again, it must be watched closely. Note that last time it hung around here for 10 days, odds are it won’t be that long this time around, and I expect more bouncing around with a volatile week ( which started today)

The NAS still is looking toppier than ever, with a nice spin top doji on resistance. However, the DOW and S&P seem somewhat stronger than the NAS, but not so much the…

…RUT, it is meeting some serious resistance. It is very possible that the combo of both of these indices may drag this whole mkt. down a bit.

Here is one of my bear calls from this weekend, not too bad eh? Down 2.5% today with room to go.

Check out this bearish engulfing candle, the v is not very impressive so this could be one of those move sideways to up a little before selling off.

PLCE recently broke out but this rally is stalling quickly. I really like this because of history, and history says that this stock usually follows what the last v spike was for a little while, and that big v spike you see from 10-8 was a down day. Further, as I noted on the chart, a tombstone doji outside the top bb usually spells short term doom. Watch the old resistance to see if it acts as support.

last one, I will tweet some more later but Mrs. akoptiontrader is calling dinner. XOM is one we have been watching and has now run into the 200 and top resistance, it is in make or break mode here. However, it is not uncommon for this to breach above the 200 ma, but not maintain the move, so tread cautious. My guess, I think it will head back down again, and form a new lower low, but hey that’s just me. AKOT

Long time coming

Well I have been waiting for a day like this for a long time, and I took advantage of it; not full advantage, but most of the advantage. We broke through some major support that I had been writing about for months, and we broke through convincingly. We even took out some secondary support that was nearby. We have more news coming out tomorrow, but I am banking that wte may already be baked in to this news. If you noticed on Wed., we had nice v into the selling and then steady low v with the buying. Today, we had selling early, and then another attempt at buying, and I was nervous as I sat on my profitable puts, that we would have the same thing that occurred on Wed. However, every rally was beat down quickly. We even sold strong right into the close, which went against my plan of buying some SPY calls at the close, but I did anyway. I just have a sneaky suspicion we may see a reactionary bounce in the morning, and if so, I will be selling right away. The move into the close was so powerful, that my limit order got filled and immediately dropped about .04, hate that.

Things are making a little more sense than they did a few short months ago. The VIX rallied right through resistance, which is consistent with a 200+ point down day. Now to see if it will hold here, or drop again for another rally. Currently, it looks very strong with lots of support beneath it.

The DOW broke down hard. You can see my support level at 9623 held yesterday, and was the bottom. We are again getting close to support near 9400, drop in the bucket of 100 points.

If you recall, I have been bloviating about how I thought the NAS would lead this move down, hence me playing the QQQQ the last few times, including this week. The NAS broke through both up trend lines, the aggressive and conservative one. I see some good support in the range of 2014 to 2025, I know not very tight, but it is a sloppy chart. This chart looks like one of those that could reach up and re-test the bottom of the broken trend line quickly, and then sell off some more.

So I went with calls right at the close on the SPY, after selling all my put positions today. Why? Well you can see we ended up on the SPX right on my red down trend line, and especially after a move like today, I would expect a little bounce, and this chart looked the bounciest to me. This is a risky trade in this environment, but I have seen this happen often, so I took a small position to see if I could catch some of it. Honestly, I will probably end up back in puts sometime tomorrow, maybe again near the close.

Same chart a little closer so that you could see to what I was referring.

The RUT is sitting on some support from that last consolidation. I am not sure how strong it will be, but it held up the SPX yesterday, so it may do the same here tomorrow.

Readers will know that I put a lot of bearish charts on here. I prefer to play down rather than up. The breaks are quicker, the moves are cleaner and I am playing against my own retirement accounts etc., so I feel like I am hedging. I am just bent that way. But I still like to play to the upside when I can, so here is one to watch. SHLD held on support on huge down day, if it holds tomorrow, could be a good long opportunity, but there is resistance very close by so be wary of it.

PBY is similar, it found support on the trend line after breaking support. I think this one might hold, even though it crushed the 20 ma today in its down move. But if it breaks, then we are looking for $8.40, a good percentage move.

CBL was up today! You can’t say that about to many stocks. So here is my conundrum, it could not break through that resistance, yet it finished positive. If this was a normal trading day, I would be watching for a drop here, but today was not normal. I still think the resistance will hold and it will drop. A move above $9.90 and I wrong.

BAC is a hotly traded stock, and I usually don’t talk much about hotly traded stocks just cuz everyone else does that. I like to find hidden gems. However, this is tough to ignore. I think this is a serious breakdown of support, both via trend and via 20 ma. Further, I really don’t see any natural support levels until we get near$14, that is a huge percentage move. I will be watching for follow thru to the down side to see if I can profit on this one.

Simple chart, a nice bearish engulfing candle near some support. I could see this heading to support and then watching for break of it to the $70 where the 200 ma comes into play.

Finally, my favorite type of play the re-test of the trend / support line. This one is a beaut because it closed beneath the 200 ma as well. I would wait for a break beneath $29.90 with good v. The v has been increasing into this down move, and I think we may see anew low soon.

In closing: The charts still look bearish, but of the 100 or so I looked through tonight, I saw several with support nearby. I am expecting a morning bounce, news depending, and maybe even a little up day on low v tomorrow. If I see that, I will be very tempted to buy puts on one of the above charts tomorrow, depending on their action. Trade well and prosper and look for more charts on TWITTER @ akoptiontrader. AKOT

Going nowhere fast.

I have always been suspicious of huge up days or down days on no v. Monday was such a day, and Mr. Hanna at Quantifiable Edges Hanna’s Blog confirmed this for me this morning. Thus I was still in puts today. I debated hard about selling, but my plan was that if we closed near the lows of the day, on decent v I would hold them overnight. The v was debatable, except on my individual stocks, so I am holding. I will know whether or not this was a mistake by about 8:16, after the unemployment numbers come out. I am not expecting good numbers. If we get wte numbers, by a good amount, I suspect we will drop hard, rally a little and then drop a lot more. I have been watching the e come out, and I am seeing a lot of companies bte, but miss on revenues. This tells me that profits are still coming by cutting, not by consumer strength. Again, I reiterate, I will not be fully bearish until we break some of these blasted up trend lines. But I have seen things coming closer, and the up moves are seeming to lose a little strength. Let’s look at some charts shall we:

Yesterday I tweeted about this huge bearish engulfing in the VIX, thinking it would lead to a down move. It did not. That, I think my be bearish for this mkt. Here you had a near perfect technical reason for a drop, and instead it rises, leaving a long tail. If this were an individual stock, I would think about going long.

The DOW ran into some resistance into this up trend line. However, if you notice the v, it is not impressive at all. I don’t see any conviction in yesterday or today’s move. Still, there is resistance and there is support, very close together. This usually leads to a breakout/ down of some kind.

It looks like the steam ran out of this up move on the SPX before it could really take off. That is a long wick on that candle, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this test that up trend line again very soon.

The RUT is still in a crux, and you can see it is very undecided. It looks like the down trend line will hold, but it has been breached by 30-40 points before, so if it is I would be cautious before going long term long. I think we will see a significant move soon.

The NAS looks most bearish to me, hence I am playing some Q puts again, but only until the down trend line. But notice this tweezer top, not text book, but it appears to be strong resistance to me. Every candle above it is black. I think for us to break to the upside would take some conviction in the move, and I don’t think there is any conviction in this mkt. right now.

The QQQQ looks very similar. I had a terrible entry point today, and I am mad at myself for that. But, I was rushing and had to take action. I like the v compared to yesterday, still not impressive overall. I will be watching that up trend closely, and I won’t necessarily use stops, because if we gap up and end up with a hanging man or similar candle, I think that will only improve the chances of a big down move.

The SPY sat right on my pivot for the day. It did breach it momentarily, but closed right on it. Again, a nice huge wick shows some selling pressure. I will be watching for selling follow thru tomorrow.

I like the breach of this decent support line, break beneath 50 & 20 ma,  and the nice re-test with a spinning doji today. I will watch for follow thru to short tomorrow, with stop at $16.50.

This looks promising for some puts. LLTC has a decent bearish engulfing candle on good support. The v today was suspect, but any improvement, and we could see the breakdown this is screaming for. Obviously, if it moves above $28.15, then I will be looking for a long play.

Another bearish engulfing on LBTYA. However, note we have a two time up trend very close by. Perhaps the better play would be to wait to see if that line offers support, then go long. You may be able to make a little on the way down, and if it blows thru the support, you will make a lot.

ADBE has found resistance 2X. It is in a sloppy pennant, but it has sold off any up move two days in a row. I would keep an eye on this for a possible breakdown.

On more so I can get this posted. This is going nowhere FAST (get it FAST!!) Check out this resistance X 3 in a row! I really think this thing is likely doomed to break to the down side of this resistance and bear flag formation. I have never traded it, so research the options if you are going to play them. Make sure they move and are liquid, which they should be with 5 mil. in v.

In closing: I thought early in the day we would see a slow long trending down day. Yet again the bulls stepped in several times today. That is some A1 prime beef we have out there. I still think they are running out of steam, and we will see a decent down move, followed by a good rally, then another big sell off, probably testing our lows. When? Well my friends that is the question. Trade well and prosper. AKOT