Is tomorrow Thursday?

All right so you are thinking man he missed that call today, but did I really? Remember I had my days wrong and yet I was looking for the gap up off of the good jobs numbers. Well that catalyst wasn’t there today, but it still pretty much ran as expected. Instead of a gap up, it gapped down and then rallied right back up to the zero, before selling off. The exact type of move I was looking for today, but in reverse. Now things have changed a bit for tomorrow. It seems like most of the indices are very close to support and it makes sense to me to see a positive move tomorrow, possibly even a big one. But I would expect more of a moderate move up. I still expect the data tomorrow pre-open to be bte, and depending on what happens with the euro and Greece, that should be enough to push this thing up a bit. I would expect some selling off of any big move up intra-day, so it could be one of those really up and down type of days, really hard to trade intra-day. Oh yeh, remember those SPY calls, well I sold them about 30 minutes in for a .40 loss per, manageable. If I had held em longer I would’ve actually got out even to up a little, but believe me I was happy with what I got, after my idiotic error last night.  Chart time:

Well I thought we would see a black candle today, I just didn’t think it would be this far above yesterday’s white candle. I think this wants to drop a little more, maybe to the 22 area.

The SPX formed a spinning top doji today, not the strongest of reversal signals. It also went below the 50 ma today, but did not reach support. Yet I could still see this bouncing a little from here.

You can see the NAS has pretty much the same thing going on here. Still it dropped a little more percentage wise than the SPX. Usually when it moves out of the bollinger bands like this, it tends to make a move back in, at least a little.

The RUT was once again the leader, falling over 1.5%. It stalled out on the bottom bollinger band and very near the 50 ma. This too looks ready for a little bounce here.

FSYS is sitting on support with bullish engulfing candle. Considering the overall mkt. this seems pretty bullish to me. I would use $27.25 as my stop on a long trade.

CAT too found support, but more on a long-term up trend and off the bottom bollinger band. Easy stop on break of the 50 ma.

In closing: There has a been a significant amount of selling lately, and I am looking for some value buyers to step in soon. If the data is good in the morning, and if things quiet down overseas, then tomorrow could be the day. I will be watching the EURO very closely as it has been tipping the hand of the mkt. all week. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

News Tremors

That was a bit more of a rally than I was expecting. In fact when the INDU was up about 120, I was looking for a sharp intra-day correction, that really didn’t occur until the end of the day and not until it rallied up another 50 points. I am still looking for a correction tomorrow, I am just not sure to what extent. The strength of today’s move surprised me and raises the odd slightly that there could be some follow through strength. I don’t think that will be the case, but I have to now consider it a very viable possibility. There is some minor news tomorrow, but pre-open there are a slew of earnings, no giants but possible mkt. movers on big surprises. The way things have been going, I would expect bte earnings to have a small effect as they have become the norm, and wte earnings to have a magnified effect. Chart time:

The VIX had a huge move up and now a huge move down. I looked back to 2007, where it was consolidated at this same level, when it would rally from 16 to 32 and saw something very similar to what we are seeing here. In 2007 it moved up to the 23 area, and then drop 5 points before heading back up. So I would not be surprised to see another move up, and I expected to find support near the gap.

The INDU managed to close above the solid resistance from the early April highs. Take note of the v however, notice that it has moved down two days in a row into this up move.

The SPX rocketed off the support, unlike the stall / bounce I was expecting. It took back the 20 ma rather easily, but a line once breached is much easier to breach the next time. I think if the SPX doesn’t take out Tuesday’s open by noon tomorrow, then I  will be looking for selling into the close.

The COMPQ closed beneath Tuesday’s open, but today was the first positive day of the last four, and it was significantly positive. Again, if it cannot stay above 2510 until after lunch, then I think a close around 2474 is likely.

I like this earnings gap down and mini rally to fizzle soon. I especially like the steadily decreasing v into this two-day up move. I think we see new lows very soon.

I thought HD would drop into the 20 ma and then rally into earnings. It looks like that is still a possibility here, seeing today’s uncertain hammer candle. I think this will be shortable tomorrow using today’s high as the stop.

In closing: I really feel like volatility is returning to this mkt. and I think we are set to see some more big moves. What I see is that the news is now causing mkt. tremors, instead of yawns. I am still looking for more selling before a rally to INDU 12k. There are a lot of logical support areas along the way and I will be watching them closely. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

The tide turned in the form of a tsunami

Okay so yesterday I said the tide was changing, I didn’t expect a tsunami. Oh well, at least it was plenty tradeable for once. Volatility took off like a Goldman Sachs Executive leaving the senate hearings for a potty break. The indices are on some minor support, and the RUT still has room to go, but in my mind I would be extremely nervous if we have another 100 + point down day with no late day move up. I would not be surprised to see the mkt. open up or down, but I will be surprised if I don’t see some buying sometime tomorrow, and most likely near the end of the day. If it was Friday, I would be looking for selling, but it is not so I am not. If we have another big down day tomorrow, I think this mkt. may be in for a sustained big drop. Now some quick charts:

The VIX rallied right back up above the 200 ma, over 5 points in one day. That is a big move, even for the VIX. Now the 200 ma has not acted as support lately, but I don’t think it will give up this whole move in one day. I will be looking for a small pullback, as some sanity moves back in and value buyers scoop up some stocks. Then I think I will be watching for another pop.

The INDU took out the 20 ma in one swoop. You can see I have a lot of “minor” support beneath, and it is sitting on minor support from the recent twice tested lows. I think if this moves above the 20 ma tomorrow, it will likely close above the 20 ma tomorrow.

The SPX also took out the 20 ma without looking back. It too found support from the 4/19 lows. I don’t expect this to be strong support, and if it breaks beneath it and holds for a bit tomorrow, I will be looking for a lot more downside, with a few minor areas of support along the way.

The COMPQ landed smack dab on the 20 ma. This goes to show how much stronger it was than the “real” mkt. It rallied hard of the last test of the 20 ma, however last time the INDU and SPX were still above, so I am not sure it will be able to hold this time. The 2400 area looks like the strongest area of support to me.

The RUT was so much more over-bought than all the others that it still has a ways to go to get to the 20 ma. That being said, I don’t expect it to serve as support if the INDU and SPX continue to drop.

In closing: Like I said yesterday, the tide seems to be turning, and the big boys seem to be leading the sell off, this is dangerous for the whole mkt. and great for those of us who love puts n shorts. Watch the minor supports for good entries long and short, and keep an eye on the NAS to see if it can go against the grain. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

The indices are flopping

So today the tides have turned a bit, just a tiny bit. Instead of the INDU being pulled up by the NAS, it was the only one that managed to stay green today. So now what we have to watch for is to see if this is the tide turning and getting ready for the pullback. I was expecting a down Monday and Tuesday this week, and the re-assessing after the FOMC on Wednesday. I am still leaning towards a down Tuesday, especially if it gaps up a little. Usually mixed mkt. days like this are difficult to trade, but I have a feeling it will give us a nice entry point or two. Chart time:

The thing I noticed about the VIX is that it has had two long-legged days in a row with an up gap in between. That tells me that the volatility is increasing throughout the day and technically speaking, there is no reason for this rally to slow down.

The INDU looks to be topping here with a big wick today, but if you look back a few short weeks ago, it teased us with a similar set-up. In fact the past set up was even better with resistance, this one is after a breakout and therefore we should be looking to go long on a pullback to support.

The SPX held up on the top resistance of this long-term channel / pennant. It looks to be poised to re-test the 20 ma again, but watch for breakouts, and the COMPQ looks very similar to this.

ALL is in a bit of a flag and although it had a bearish engulfing candle today, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a breakout to the upside.

AMZN has found some support along with a bullish engulfing candle, so I am looking for a move up from here.

XLU has been in an up trend, but it is now back at the top and I am looking for a drop.

In closing: I don’t expect a huge move tomorrow, unless something leaks regarding the FOMC on Wed. , but I am still leaning to the down side. Watch the indices to see if they are truly turning over. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Jobs are on the way

There is some definite volatility showing, up moves are not holding, down moves aren’t continuing and the indices are not moving in sync. Things seem to be a little disjointed, but still the small cap and tech looks very strong. I know it makes no sense, but for some reason DOW 11,000 seems to be a little bit of a big deal.  I still think when it is taken out, it could be one of those big wick candles that signals an interim top. Tomorrow is consumer credit news, but I think the bigger news is Thursday with the continuing and initial claims. Have you noticed that our beloved government has been prepping the mkt. for bad jobs numbers? Be patient, the jobs will come, they are on the way…. yah in the form of 16,000 more government employees to handle all the bureaucracy of healthcare. Washington Examiner ( one of hundreds). Now for some happy uplifting stuff, stock charts:

The VIX is right back on key support, and I am still waiting for that big bounce up. But I know that the more support is tested, the more likely it is to break, and this is starting to look like spring ice.

Of all the indices, the 30 stocks of the DOW seem to be the weakest. That being said, it did have a pretty nice rally off the lows of the day, but in doing so it formed a nice long-legged doji cross. If you look closely you will see that a very similar cross was the start of this current rally.

The SPX still looks pretty strong, sliding up the topside of the bollinger band. The RSI looked like it was starting to trend down but it had a nice curl up today. The MACD isn’t quite there yet, but it is on the verge. I still think the top of this current never-ending ascending pennant may be the top of this move. That means SPX 1200 +.

The NASDAQ continues to be the bellwether leading the charge. Here you see another breakout, with a slight intra-day pullback. So it broke free of that support after 8 days.

I still like the EUR/USD to test this support, and then eventually break it.

KLAC is testing the bottom of this gap with two down v days in a row. Today it formed a spin top bearish harami doji, now that’s a mouthful. I think this is primed for a drop here, but watch for it to make a run at the top of the gap. Therefore, if I trade it short, I will use $32.98 as my stop, giving it a little room to play.

A very loose inverse head and shoulders that broke out. Now it is looking to re-test the neckline on declining v. If v continues to decline into this move, then I will look for bounce off that line. But it is playable either way using it as the pivot.

I liked the action on BKS today, and I am short it right now. EZ stop at $22.80. However, looking it I need to be cognizant of the up trend that it is in.

In closing: I will be watching for continued dis-jointedness in this mkt. and I will take that to mean that some sentiment is changing. As it stands with the RUT as strong as it is, this is a speculative mkt. I am leaning towards a slightly more directional day tomorrow and my game plan is to trade that way. Look for late night quick post tomorrow, oh and btw, trade well and prosper. AKOT

Synchronized Signals

What a way to kick off the week. I could not see a direction for most of the morning, the breadth, internals, everything was up and down, but that didn’t last too long. Now the NAS already blew last week’s highs out of the water and was the early leader last week. I was looking for that big down day, and now, if we move up a little more, I will instead be looking for some consolidation, then more rally. I really want to be flexible and be able to grab some of these great moves. I missed out on today because I wasn’t ready and wasn’t by my computer when the move went off. You will note I added the MACD to tonight’s charts. I use the MACD a lot, for confirmation and direction, but I rarely put it on my posted charts. I do this just to keep the charts clean and easy to read. If you guys don’t like it, let me know and I will clean them back up, but let’s try it for a bit. On to the charts:

As I talked about yesterday, the bottom of that gap would be a logical place for the VIX to find support, and it did. The next most logical place is near 21.20, the previous low and the 50 ma. We could see a hold / bounce here, but if not we will likely hold in the 21.20 area.

One reason I put the MACD w/ histogram on these charts is to show how I look for confirmations. Check out this beautiful move in unison, its like synchronized swimming. Usually this will lead to at least a little upside momentum. However, at the blue arrow is some very obvious resistance, and I think it will be pretty decent resistance. If we take that out, I think we head towards 11,000.

You can see the same thing on the SPX. I took the liberty of pointing out some of these unison moves and you can see the corresponding SPX move. I see decent resistance at 1105.

Originally I thought this was a cliff walker; moving sideways off the bottom bollinger band. But then it took out the top of that big black candle and is nearing another resistance line. This looks strong, very strong, but strong moves often have a pause and that is what I am watching for.

The RUT looks even more impressive than the NAS. It has already taken out the 20, 50 and previous high. I would be watching for a buying opportunity on any small pullback.

The UUP really gave up the ghost today on light v. It makes sense for this to drop to the 200 ma and hold. I think when we see another big v day, we see another big up day.

I still like BWLD to head to the $40 area. It was weak on a very strong day today, and all the indicators are still signaling a drop. I do think it needs to move sideways or up slightly for a day or two before falling more.

I like this simple chart. Strong up move on earnings, gap down move up a little more the next day, then a bearish engulfing today. I think this is headed to $7.

In closing: The RUT and NAS look very strong, and the SPX and INDU are very near looking strong. I think the key is whether the SPX will take out its previous high. If it does not, then I think it will drag the others down with it. If it does, then I am going long. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Hitting some trend lines

Well so much for another blah day. We had a real move today, with okay v, but not enough to breakdown, not enough to take out support. We have crude & wholesale inventories tomorrow and that is it. So unless another politician wants to speak, healthcare gets passed, we send more troops to atwarastahn, Dubai strikes gold and oil on the same day, or some other news item pops up, I will be expecting a bounce in the morning. Simply a relief bounce due to the abundance of selling today. Now, I don’t know if we will finish up, as every time I looked at my 10 or 15 min. charts on the ES, all the big v moves were down moves. That tells me there are more sellers than buyers in these recent middle v days. We had another strong day for the UUP and VIX, and the EUR/ USD is currently sitting on very key support, IMHO.

The VIX just keeps jumping levels of past support. It did it again today, and note that it finished much closer to the high of the day than the low of the day. I think if we see a parabolic jump up, say like the $5 move in Nov., that will signal a short-term top. However, if we keep just making small jumps up, we could go on for a while.

The DOW hit a key support line in this short-term up trend. However, although this may stall us out or even cause a little bounce up, I think the red support is the eventual target.

The SPX has hit similar support, and pulled back from it. I think when we do take this support out, and I think we will, it will be with a big down move like I was talking about yesterday. Today was big, but not big enough to take this out. It may not happen tomorrow, but Thursday or Friday sure would make sense.

We are kind of just hanging out there on the NAS. I thought we make a move to fill the gap today, but we didn’t even get close. I still think that move is coming, but this mkt. has been extremely indecisive the last couple of days.

The UUP keeps going up and away. It hit head first into some resistance from previous support today. I don’t know if it has enough fuel to shoot this or not. I was just looking at the EUR/USD and it has rallied a bit to get above that level I talked about in the intro.

FCEL, moved back up into the 200 ma with a doji harami. Note however that it did take out the top of this long wedge and that it broke above this short-term down trend, so it is not optimal. But still, these re-tests are my favorite trades and I will be watching this one.

The XLB looks pretty bearish still. You can see it made several of this megaphone type patterns in the pat before breaking down, at least a little. This current move is much more pronounced and could lead to a bigger move. I will be watching closely this current test of support.

Finally a little CCJ. This one took out two support levels, the 20 ma and found some support on the 50 ma, all on good v. That 50 ma may stall this enough for us to get short, or it may just keep on dropping to the $27.50 area.

In closing: Most signs are still pointing to more selling to come. However, as always, unexpected and expected news can and will move this mkt. If I see a huge very fast move either direction off news, I usually watch a 5 min. chart, wait for a reversal candle, and play opposite that move for a quick trade. It works way more often than not, as long as you are willing to get out as soon as your reversal candle gets smoked. I will throw some more charts up on twitter and stocktwits. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

The TOL bell rings for the market

Well today was actually a lot more like I thought the first few days of this week might be. I thought we might grind a little higher, not blast off like yesterday. That was a little crazy. Obviously we had a lot of dojis out there today in chartland. I still think we could grind a little higher, and then we are in a make or break area. The make means we punch out to new highs all around, the break means some resistance holds and only the DOW makes a new high. I figure the TOL news after hours (strong pre-earnings guidance) tonight could definitely be the catalyst to start us on the up track tomorrow. In the current economic condition, TOL, BZH, PHM, all those housing stocks are key indicators in this “recovery”. They were all hot stocks and people want some more of that magic, and the big dogs would love to give it to them, and then take it away. Chart time:

The VIX smashed through the first three levels of support, but it seems to have held up here a little, at least for two days. You can see on that last move down it stalled out for three days before dropping, and that would make sense here since we have on more day of no real news.

The DOW is still the strongest and off to the races. I must admit the v is increasing overall ever so slightly, but it currently is in a bearish divergence. Again, the most logical area for a reversal, to me, is 10360. In fact, the perfect scenario for a reversal down would be to have a very strong move up into that area, with some selling into the close leaving a great big top wick. However, if we grind slowly into it, then I think we may continue higher. Either way I don’t think it will be easily breached.

Now normally you would hear me squawking about this being a great reversal point, and it should be. However if you check out my ever so subtle blue arrows, you will see that we had similar formations in the midst of up moves. Granted, this one is very close to some past resistance and should be stronger, but a move to 1100 just seems to make sense to me. Then I will look hard at shorting the SPY. Further, if we get a second reversal candle tomorrow, I will be scoping hard for weakness.

Of the three indices, the NAS continues to have the possibility of a true h&s formation. I like how it has stalled out here on the up trend line with a decent reversal candle. We also have an open gap that will want to be filled soon.

In my eyes, the UUP had some interesting movement the last two days. I love how it touched the top of that down trend line and pulled back. Today was a long-tailed day with decent v and I would not be surprised to see it move up some from here. As I type this, the EUR/USD is down a few pips and looks to be forming a top after the big up move on Monday. UUP up, market down, UUP down market up.

Nice doji on previous high and underside of up trend. This is a key area and easily playable, a break above 26.60 should be a good long signal, a move below 26.50 should be a good short signal.

This is the third time the XLI has tested this top, so we are either forming a triple top or a breakout. Knowing how strong the DOW has been I would lean towards breakout, but this is almost a bearish harami on resistance, usually a pretty decent reversal sign. Again, playable either way with today’s high and low as buy signals and the fib as your stop.

Due to TOL, I think we will see the XHB breakout of this wedge to the upside. But, depending on how far the mkt. moves, it will likely be a short-lived move.

Sticking with the X theme today, I like this re-test of this sloppy h&s. I would like it even more if we had moved up another .50 today, but I still think it is playable and will likely re-test the 200 ma.

In closing: I am expecting some more grinding tomorrow, but then again I was expecting grinding on Monday as well. I could see the NAS & SPX dragging the DOW down a little, and if we move down from here I think that we should expect a move up into some new highs in the DOW. But, if we move up big and sell off into the close, I think that will signal a top. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

 

 

Chip off the old block, INTC

Well so much for that volatility eh? Not really, if you looked at the calendar on Sunday’s video, I expected most of the volatility to start tomorrow morning. We had no real news or big dog earnings come out until tonight, and that should kick off the movement I am anticipating.

Although the charts are still very toppy ( see yesterday’s post) INTC came out with earnings after hours and blew the lid off in every category and then guided higher. You can’t get much better than that. The interesting conundrum here is that tomorrow morning retail sales comes out, and if INTC is an indicator, and I don’t know if it is or not, then ex-auto retail sales should blow the doors of the expected -0.2% fall. IF it does, then I think we take out DOW 10,000 tomorrow. IF it does not, then I think it will give the impression to expect economic news the rest of the week, and lead to some selling.  Then the rest of the week should move the same, earnings after hours, econ news in the morning, exp. on Friday, hence the volatility.

I tried to short the XLF today, and messed up my order. I meant to buy if we broke the morning lows, but I entered “above” on my conditional order and got filled right away. OOPs! So I held it and threw down a decent stop and got stopped out. Hate when that happens ( yes I have done that once before!) If I had entered my order properly, it would’ve never been filled, which is fine since I was traveling all day and could not look at a computer.  Needless to say, tomorrow morning I will be waiting for direction. I am going to watch v with any strong move, and possibly try to play opposite moves up and or down for some quick intra-day trades. Let’s look at some charts, even though they really haven’t changed too much since last night.

The VIX looked like it really wanted to rally this morning. In fact, I tweeted how it was up in the midst of the morning rally, alas that did not last. I have already said that last time we spent 10 days in this area, so it may be a sludgy few days here, but as far as candlesticks go, this is a pretty strong reversal signal.

The DOW managed to hold above that 9850 area, barely, and formed a nice hanging man doji, just dangling and waiting to drop. So strictly on TA, this chart looks poised for a reversal, but with all the news and earnings coming out the next few days, I would very careful. As I said, I could see the bulls bum- rushing this thing above 10 k just cuz they want 10 k. At that point, I will be shorting something!

The SPX, same scenario as the DOW, but the up trend line served as support once again.

I really thought this was the chart most poised for a reversal the last couple days, and whadya know, it is the only one of the three that ended up in the green! What a call eh? None-the-less I would be hard pressed to call this an up day, more like unchanged and still technically stalled out and poised to head down. Now that INTC has come out and hit for the cycle, I imagine, depending on the morning news, that we will gap up big in the morning. Could be a good play against the grain on the QQQQ if that happens.

I am almost scared to say this, but it looks like the almighty dollar may be bottoming a little. It certainly rallied off of its lows today on okay v. I would not be surprised to see a move up here tomorrow, no matter what the econ news is.

ENER has earnings in few days, but it hit resistance in textbook form yesterday, and had a down inside day today. I will be looking for follow through to the down side, perhaps testing $10 again before earnings.

CAB, I have tweeted this one a few times recently and it has delivered. It has stalled out on the 20 ma here, but it looks like hanging fruit waiting to fall. I like it to test the $12.50 area again, but again earnings on 10/26.

Wrote myself a cute little note, since this is BKS and all about writing and books and coffee, and snacks and music and……. I like how the 200 ma has offered a lot of support, so I am watching for support again, but if it fails then short to the $17.50 area.

I thought BKE looked a little bearish here, similar to PLCE which I tweeted about yesterday and then finished up today. I don’t think move will last btw. I like the v on this chart into the strong selling. Perhaps we will see a small bounce before dropping some more.

This was a morning tweet, ARM and it looked to be forming a bear engulfing, but that did not last. Instead we have another spin top doji, which still signals indecision / reversal and since we are near the top range, I will be watching for a down move.

In closing: We are coming into the heart of the first part of earnings with some big names that WILL move the mkt. Some of my favorite trades are the over reaction to good / bad news plays. Big moves that happen in minutes. I try to play the opposite of those. I would not advise it for anyone else as they are very risky and very quick plays, but lots of fun if you get em right.

To me, most all the charts looked like they have topped, but the news can change that quickly, so listen carefully to what is going on. Trade cautiously and quickly and prosper. AKOT

Sir Top’em hat

Had to do a quick post today. I know I was expecting a down day today, but this might be even a little worse. The closer the DOW gets to 10,000, the more the bulls will want to push up to 10k, and I think that has a huge possibility of causing a reactionary sell off;Remember $100 a barrel oil? Although I am still not convinced that we will make it. Oh, I know how close we are but I think tech is holding us back, but that could be easily remedied with some bte from GOOG and IBM. Chart time:

That support on the VIX held again, it must be watched closely. Note that last time it hung around here for 10 days, odds are it won’t be that long this time around, and I expect more bouncing around with a volatile week ( which started today)

The NAS still is looking toppier than ever, with a nice spin top doji on resistance. However, the DOW and S&P seem somewhat stronger than the NAS, but not so much the…

…RUT, it is meeting some serious resistance. It is very possible that the combo of both of these indices may drag this whole mkt. down a bit.

Here is one of my bear calls from this weekend, not too bad eh? Down 2.5% today with room to go.

Check out this bearish engulfing candle, the v is not very impressive so this could be one of those move sideways to up a little before selling off.

PLCE recently broke out but this rally is stalling quickly. I really like this because of history, and history says that this stock usually follows what the last v spike was for a little while, and that big v spike you see from 10-8 was a down day. Further, as I noted on the chart, a tombstone doji outside the top bb usually spells short term doom. Watch the old resistance to see if it acts as support.

last one, I will tweet some more later but Mrs. akoptiontrader is calling dinner. XOM is one we have been watching and has now run into the 200 and top resistance, it is in make or break mode here. However, it is not uncommon for this to breach above the 200 ma, but not maintain the move, so tread cautious. My guess, I think it will head back down again, and form a new lower low, but hey that’s just me. AKOT