Weekly Video 2/7/2010

Yes I am back in America, back in Alaska, and back in the mkt. Sorry for the long absence, but man between the beach, surfing, exploring, my wife and friends, I just could not find time to give the mkt. the justice it demands. So I decided not to blog until I got my head back into the game. My head is freezing cold, but I am back in the game. I actually spent some time with a couple traders in Costa Rica and learned a lot of new stuff. I will be incorporating it just as soon as I run some tests etc., but I am very excited.

Things are looking a little different this time, similar to the move this past July. A lot more volatility, and we took out a previous low, both of which occurred in July, and you know how that worked out. Back then I thought that was signaling a top, and I think the same now, but I am much more cautious this time. Now onto this week’s video.

Alcoa can’t wait for tomorrow….

Earnings have kicked off with a resounding “thud”. AA disappointed the mkt. and now a small degree of fear has crept in. Yet the VIX was down today, because AA came out after the close. The rest of the week we will see some NASDAQ moving earnings that will be topped off with INTC on Thursday and JPM on Friday. I expect both of those to be mkt. movers.

I have to keep it quick tonight because I am so late, and may be late all week. But keep on eye on the earnings and watch how the mkt. moves. Will it sell off on bad news only to fill morning gaps and rally or will it sell off and keep selling. If it is good news, did we do the opposite. These are things I will be watching for to see what the sentiment is and where we may be heading. Often times the mkts. reaction to earnings news can be a signal of things to come, especially early on when we only have a few companies reporting. On to some charts:

The VIX broke waaaayyyyy down today. It looks like it really wants to head straight to that $16 support line. But I think we will see a pop tomorrow, at least initially in the morning.

The DOW , after seeming to be the weaker of the indices, took over the strength role today. I don’t think that will last too long as AA earnings should have a clear impact on the DOW. However, it did breakout today, while the others lagged, perhaps in anticipation of good earnings from AA.

We kind of have a weak hammer formation here, but nothing to write home about. The NAS was very weak today, held up only by the DOW strength. GOOG and AAPL both showed signs of weakness and as the Googapp goes, so goes the NAS.

I have a weird tick on my SPX so I am using the SPY instead today. Note a slight bearish divergence into this up move. These divergences have not been playing out well, but I still like to note them. The SPY is sliding up the top bb, careful not to pierce it. It is still over-bought and still rallying. I think if we see a v pop tomorrow, we see selling.

LNG looks to be breaking out. It took out the 200 on clear strength and v, a strong sign. I would look for a correction, maybe back down to the 200 ma and then some more up movement.

As I said, INTC reports on Thursday so keep an eye on it. It opened right at the open of that high candle from Oct, but failed to break above. Going into earnings, if the consensus is that they will do bte, then I think we keep rising here. If worry sneaks in, then some fast selling.

Check this out, perhaps some foreshadowing on AA. A great doji setup going into e. Maybe somebody knew something. I am curious, was this rally from Dec in anticipation of great e? If so, then I think we will see at least $14 before the move is over.

In closing: I have a lot to do this week to get ready for our trip to Costa Rica this weekend. I will do my best to post at night this week, but no promises. Watch e closely, see what the sentiment is going in , and if it returns after the initial move in the morning. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

One day does not a trend make, unless it is Jan 1.

Not one day does a trend make, unless it is the first day of January. Should we be surprised by such strong move today? Not necessarily, remember ony 63%  of the time the Jan 1 move was in the same direction as the last trading day of December. Also remember that, without exception in the last 10 years, whatever Jan 1 did a trend was based off of that day, the shortest one being 3 days. What I didn’t check was to see what kind of resistance those mkts. had.

Cash21 has a feeling that we will see some decent jobs numbers on Thursday. If he is right, we could really see a strong up move. I believe this because we have had this current rally with terrible jobs numbers. Sure they have been bte, but they are still awful anyway you slice it. So if we see some confirmation I think it will be plastered all over the place and money will flow into this mkt. That is also a great time for big $$ to look for selling opportunities, after playing the up move of course. On to some charts:

As I said on the video, I think that the $16 – $17 area is a very logical zone for the VIX to end up in. There is very good support at $16. Notice the RSI is making a series of lower highs, and it is in a pretty apparent down range right now. Early on today it seemed oddly strong before finally selling off.

I actually expected quite a bit more v today. Perhaps that guy who ran in through the out-door ( Raspberry Beret, Prince 1986?) in Jersey made all the traders late getting home. Either way there has been a four-day up trend in v and a clear breakout to the upside. If you note that down trending blue line we are near, that is drawn on the highs of the day in a down trend starting with the Oct 07 high. I usually use the bodies, but we have long since smashed through that. I don’t know how strong of resistance this will be, if any, but we need to be aware of it none-the-less.

The NAS gapped up and stayed up. It doesn’t look like much, but percentage wise it did better than the others, sans the RUT. And this after a beauty of a bearish engulfing candle, albeit on low v. I don’t think it is too often that bearish engulfings near top bb are ignored. So if we continue up, like we have in the past, that will be impressive.

The SPX took out the 50% fib and the up trend line.  There is a lot of open sky right here for an up move. But again, I harp with the being oversold for so long. It didn’t gap up, but is definitely showed strength today. I am very surprised that 50% fib did not offer a lot more resistance, I was pretty confident it would.

From the weakest to the strongest. Seasonally this is the heart of strength for the RUT and it is showing it. It sure looked like it was giving up the ghost in Nov, and now we have a pretty clear breakout here. Note that once again the long-term down trend on this w chart. It could certainly offer some resistance.

UUP is in the zone here, the gap zone. There was a nice little v spike with the move and it seemed to have bounced off of the 20 ma. Looking at the past buying v, I would expect to see another spike of buying if we get down to the $22.50 area. But, I expect this gap to offer support, so I think we will likely see some strength in the $22.75 area, and I may be looking to buy this there.

I have been watching this for a while; I like the re-test of the neckline, but it is now caught between the 200 ma and the neckline. A move up with some v and play up, a move down below 200 ma and short to $13.50 area.

You can see a series of lower highs and with shorter time periods. But what really intrigues me is that we have lovely bearish engulfing candle  followed by a bearish harami. This thing really looks like it wants to drop soon to me.

In closing: Based on my short-term research, I think we will see some more up move tomorrow and perhaps the rest of the week. Today may have been the bulk of it, but if we get much bte numbers during the week, it may have been just a taste of what is to come. Yes, I still think this mkt. is clearly overbought, but as I have said before it can stay that way for a while. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Weekly video 12-13-2009

As I say in the video, this week was pretty rough. I expected some sideways movement after we touched that support line on the DOW, but instead we actually had a pretty decent up move, and made a recent higher high. Yet, the NASDAQ still looks very toppy and ripe for a turn down. It has been a meat grinder lately, and it might stay that way. But when I look at the dollar strengthening exponentially, I just have a hard time seeing this sideways to up movement holding on. We have a little economic news this week, but that didn’t really move us much at all last week, just pops here and there, and most of that move was prior to any news. Let’s see if we get more of the same.

Are we there yet?

Well we pushed up a few more points, like I have been pining for. But, there’s always but with me, we did not push up quite high enough on the SPX. You would think I would be happy. I am not. My scenario was that we push up and take out 10360 on the DOW and the SPX would take out 1120, both 50% fib lines. And then immediately start to see some weakness. I did not see the weakness I was looking for. In fact I felt some painage today. However, tomorrow is a new day. Although I did not see the weakness I was looking for, (sans Meredith Whitney, God Bless Her, and who I agree with frankly) I did see some anomalies which I think bear ( pun intended) looking at. Let’s get to it:

The VIX has once again show respect for that 22.77 area which has been on this chart for a long time. Further, this is a long-tailed candle, which the last one led to a pretty decent up move. However, if this is a true megaphone pattern, we should see the VIX move down to the 19.50 before rallying. I don’t know that will occur, because I think we have a couple areas of decent support along the way. I thought we might stay inside that wedge pattern today, with not much movement, Ha.

A VIX by another name is the VIXN. This was a whole different story. In fact, this was up almost a percent today, with another long tail. You can see the obvious support at 22.60 and it appears to have held once again. This is one of the non-conformist charts that I saw today. It tells me that when I short an index, it will likely be the QQQQ.

Anomaly number two, the TLT. Now I don’t often talk about the TLT, just cuz I think I throw enough stuff out there to watch during the day. But when things are going strong one way or the other, I look at a lot of things for confirmation, v, VIX, UUP ( more often now) GDX, TLT and all my indices and sectors. This caught my eye immediately this morning, hence my hesitation about going Gung Ho Long. You see the TLT should generally be an inverse of the mkt. overall. The more people get out of the mkt. the more they get into treasuries. Yet this bugger not only gapped up, it continued up. Money was flowing into treasuries with very good v today, and that should not have been happening with a 100+ DOW day, unless the big money knows something we don’t. However, I will say that this chart has run smack dab into the 50 ma,  200 ma and X trend lines, making it likely to see a reversal here before trying to make another run up.

Now I was surprised to see us gap down beneath support, and even more surprised to see us close beneath it. This support has been breached four times without a close beneath, usually a pretty strong sign. However, the more often it is breached the more likely it will give way; but I thought that would be like a dozen breaches or so. Now note the beautiful gap down spin top doji today, usually a decent reversal signal. However, I pointed out some more gap down spin top dojis, as this chart is littered with them. It looks to me like only one of them lead to a decent rally, granted this was in a strong down trending chart. I still submit that we really look like we are bottoming here and that there will come a time when the Govt. has to step in and shore up the almighty dollar, or we will all be paying our TGIF bills with Euros soon.

You can see that we not only took out the 10360, but closed 46 points above it. You can also see that I have two top channel lines, both very close together, that I will be watching and which I think will line up nicely with the SPX 50% fib. V was better than the last four days, but not overly impressive for a move of this magnitude. In fact, it looks to me like we are still in a bit of a v divergence.

One more chart, so I can go to the corner and lick my wounds, this is the 5 year SPX. I show this to remind you from whence my fibs originate. I thought 1100 would offer decent resistance, but I think 1120-25 will offer even more resistance and be a great short entry on the SPY. Once again, we may be close enough here, but it certainly is not picture perfect. I did not draw my fibs from wicks or tails, I used candle bodies as they seemed to be the logical choice.

In Closing: We did not hit the SPX 50% fib target in conjunction with the DOW. If we had I would have felt much more comfortable shorting at the close today, which was my plan going into the close. Now I will wait to see what tomorrow brings, but I will still be looking for my short entry. I still firmly believe with every inch of my trading fiber that this mkt. is going to sell off soon. However, I will still play short-term long plays and play puts one or two months out until I see confirmation of that move. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

The TOL bell rings for the market

Well today was actually a lot more like I thought the first few days of this week might be. I thought we might grind a little higher, not blast off like yesterday. That was a little crazy. Obviously we had a lot of dojis out there today in chartland. I still think we could grind a little higher, and then we are in a make or break area. The make means we punch out to new highs all around, the break means some resistance holds and only the DOW makes a new high. I figure the TOL news after hours (strong pre-earnings guidance) tonight could definitely be the catalyst to start us on the up track tomorrow. In the current economic condition, TOL, BZH, PHM, all those housing stocks are key indicators in this “recovery”. They were all hot stocks and people want some more of that magic, and the big dogs would love to give it to them, and then take it away. Chart time:

The VIX smashed through the first three levels of support, but it seems to have held up here a little, at least for two days. You can see on that last move down it stalled out for three days before dropping, and that would make sense here since we have on more day of no real news.

The DOW is still the strongest and off to the races. I must admit the v is increasing overall ever so slightly, but it currently is in a bearish divergence. Again, the most logical area for a reversal, to me, is 10360. In fact, the perfect scenario for a reversal down would be to have a very strong move up into that area, with some selling into the close leaving a great big top wick. However, if we grind slowly into it, then I think we may continue higher. Either way I don’t think it will be easily breached.

Now normally you would hear me squawking about this being a great reversal point, and it should be. However if you check out my ever so subtle blue arrows, you will see that we had similar formations in the midst of up moves. Granted, this one is very close to some past resistance and should be stronger, but a move to 1100 just seems to make sense to me. Then I will look hard at shorting the SPY. Further, if we get a second reversal candle tomorrow, I will be scoping hard for weakness.

Of the three indices, the NAS continues to have the possibility of a true h&s formation. I like how it has stalled out here on the up trend line with a decent reversal candle. We also have an open gap that will want to be filled soon.

In my eyes, the UUP had some interesting movement the last two days. I love how it touched the top of that down trend line and pulled back. Today was a long-tailed day with decent v and I would not be surprised to see it move up some from here. As I type this, the EUR/USD is down a few pips and looks to be forming a top after the big up move on Monday. UUP up, market down, UUP down market up.

Nice doji on previous high and underside of up trend. This is a key area and easily playable, a break above 26.60 should be a good long signal, a move below 26.50 should be a good short signal.

This is the third time the XLI has tested this top, so we are either forming a triple top or a breakout. Knowing how strong the DOW has been I would lean towards breakout, but this is almost a bearish harami on resistance, usually a pretty decent reversal sign. Again, playable either way with today’s high and low as buy signals and the fib as your stop.

Due to TOL, I think we will see the XHB breakout of this wedge to the upside. But, depending on how far the mkt. moves, it will likely be a short-lived move.

Sticking with the X theme today, I like this re-test of this sloppy h&s. I would like it even more if we had moved up another .50 today, but I still think it is playable and will likely re-test the 200 ma.

In closing: I am expecting some more grinding tomorrow, but then again I was expecting grinding on Monday as well. I could see the NAS & SPX dragging the DOW down a little, and if we move down from here I think that we should expect a move up into some new highs in the DOW. But, if we move up big and sell off into the close, I think that will signal a top. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

 

 

A bounce makes sense

We had a whole lot of nothing going on today. That really isn’t true, a savvy day trader certainly could have banked some buck today, but I don’t have the time or inclination for that type of trading on a regular basis. Once in a while is fine, just not every day. I decided to keep my SPY calls thinking that we set up some nice up move signs today, and also thinking we may move up into the FOMC un-announcement. Personally, I think unless there is an interest rate change, we put waaaayyyy tooo much emphasis on the “wording”. In case you haven’t heard they re-use most of the statement. Everyone just wants that one or two words. IMHO, I think we still have another shoe to drop, a big shoe, and I think a lot of people are going to get hurt when it falls, and if I am right, then I will be prepared to strive mightily. If I am wrong, then I will do my best to keep trading the mkt. as it gives what it shall.

In the past, I have usually played the Fed as a counter play, almost every time. I wait for the initial over reaction, wait ( unlike Monday) for a nice looking entry point on the 5 minute chart, then go against the move. If I don’t see that counter forming very soon, then I look to go with the move because I think it is going to be a big one. Now, I don’t know if that will work tomorrow since this really is an un-announcement, but I will be watching for it. What was that? Enough gabbing, you want some charts? Well, fine then:

The VIX did break through yesterday’s support, and my target for the VIX is in the 25 area. Now, if the megaphone pattern keeps playing out, then we are headed to the 20 area and this mkt. will rise hard, but I don’t think that is the case.

I cleaned up the charts just for ease of viewing. Now, the DOW continues to look the most bullish long-term. The recent up trend is still in tact, there is significant support, and to make a h&s pattern here we would need to drop to the 9400 area, a long ways from here. If we break above 9900, we are back in rally mode, but I think it will hold this time, not because of the DOW , but because of everything else. Perhaps this is telling us that when this mkt. falls, the DOW stocks will be some of the best ones to be in.

The SPX really looks poised for a bounce here, hence me staying long SPY. Note that we are sitting on the bbb, and that most often predicates an up move of some type. I know that we have the 50 and 20 mas above, but we have blown right through them in the past and I think we do the same here. I also like that the RSI is so low, that give it room to move up.

This looks even more bullish to me right here, so why the heck am I in the SPY? Well at the time it was the right decision. In fact, I probably should have went long the QQQQ as well today, with an easy stop at this NAS support. This could be the beginning of a beautiful shorting opportunity that I am afraid everyone will be chortling about a few weeks from now. We could see the old h&s off a bounce from here after this nice doji followed by a huge bullish engulfing today. The only thing to note is that it stopped right at my resistance line, so perhaps this will be strong resistance. If we have any good pre-market news, a gap above would be fitting.

Again, much of the same on the SPY, on decent support but not as good as the NAS support.

Morning tweet, nice earnings, very nice range trading since August, looking for more of the same following this bullish engulfing near support.

Crucial point, mixed earnings today, beat by .07 but guided lower. It looks to me like the buyers are winning out and this support will hold. It will also make a great stop, in case the bears take over, either way there is a clear delineation.

A couple of the AG stocks looked pretty good to me, this is one of them. POT is testing the 200 ma and 4/5 times it has held. Further, the RSI is making higher lows and we had a bullish engulfing today. Yes there is resistance above, but I would classify it as minor. Given enough time before the whole mkt. starts moving back down, I could see us hitting 105 again.

AGU is set up for a bounce but on slightly different terms. It has earnings tomorrow morning, and I think if they follow suit we could see a very nice up move tomorrow with follow through. If that support gives way, the way I would trade it is wait for a retest then short, but that’s just me.

Let’s finish with some GDX. This was very, very strong today. The v was huge, the RSI is setting up great for an up move and I think $51 is there to be taken.

In closing: If you noticed, I put a lot of up charts on the blog today, because that is what I am seeing. I think we need some more up before we see more down. Of course the news the rest of the week can pretty much trash that theory and we could just drop like a rock, but you know what I think. I will be leaning a little more to the long side, just for the short-term. AKOT

Chip off the old block, INTC

Well so much for that volatility eh? Not really, if you looked at the calendar on Sunday’s video, I expected most of the volatility to start tomorrow morning. We had no real news or big dog earnings come out until tonight, and that should kick off the movement I am anticipating.

Although the charts are still very toppy ( see yesterday’s post) INTC came out with earnings after hours and blew the lid off in every category and then guided higher. You can’t get much better than that. The interesting conundrum here is that tomorrow morning retail sales comes out, and if INTC is an indicator, and I don’t know if it is or not, then ex-auto retail sales should blow the doors of the expected -0.2% fall. IF it does, then I think we take out DOW 10,000 tomorrow. IF it does not, then I think it will give the impression to expect economic news the rest of the week, and lead to some selling.  Then the rest of the week should move the same, earnings after hours, econ news in the morning, exp. on Friday, hence the volatility.

I tried to short the XLF today, and messed up my order. I meant to buy if we broke the morning lows, but I entered “above” on my conditional order and got filled right away. OOPs! So I held it and threw down a decent stop and got stopped out. Hate when that happens ( yes I have done that once before!) If I had entered my order properly, it would’ve never been filled, which is fine since I was traveling all day and could not look at a computer.  Needless to say, tomorrow morning I will be waiting for direction. I am going to watch v with any strong move, and possibly try to play opposite moves up and or down for some quick intra-day trades. Let’s look at some charts, even though they really haven’t changed too much since last night.

The VIX looked like it really wanted to rally this morning. In fact, I tweeted how it was up in the midst of the morning rally, alas that did not last. I have already said that last time we spent 10 days in this area, so it may be a sludgy few days here, but as far as candlesticks go, this is a pretty strong reversal signal.

The DOW managed to hold above that 9850 area, barely, and formed a nice hanging man doji, just dangling and waiting to drop. So strictly on TA, this chart looks poised for a reversal, but with all the news and earnings coming out the next few days, I would very careful. As I said, I could see the bulls bum- rushing this thing above 10 k just cuz they want 10 k. At that point, I will be shorting something!

The SPX, same scenario as the DOW, but the up trend line served as support once again.

I really thought this was the chart most poised for a reversal the last couple days, and whadya know, it is the only one of the three that ended up in the green! What a call eh? None-the-less I would be hard pressed to call this an up day, more like unchanged and still technically stalled out and poised to head down. Now that INTC has come out and hit for the cycle, I imagine, depending on the morning news, that we will gap up big in the morning. Could be a good play against the grain on the QQQQ if that happens.

I am almost scared to say this, but it looks like the almighty dollar may be bottoming a little. It certainly rallied off of its lows today on okay v. I would not be surprised to see a move up here tomorrow, no matter what the econ news is.

ENER has earnings in few days, but it hit resistance in textbook form yesterday, and had a down inside day today. I will be looking for follow through to the down side, perhaps testing $10 again before earnings.

CAB, I have tweeted this one a few times recently and it has delivered. It has stalled out on the 20 ma here, but it looks like hanging fruit waiting to fall. I like it to test the $12.50 area again, but again earnings on 10/26.

Wrote myself a cute little note, since this is BKS and all about writing and books and coffee, and snacks and music and……. I like how the 200 ma has offered a lot of support, so I am watching for support again, but if it fails then short to the $17.50 area.

I thought BKE looked a little bearish here, similar to PLCE which I tweeted about yesterday and then finished up today. I don’t think move will last btw. I like the v on this chart into the strong selling. Perhaps we will see a small bounce before dropping some more.

This was a morning tweet, ARM and it looked to be forming a bear engulfing, but that did not last. Instead we have another spin top doji, which still signals indecision / reversal and since we are near the top range, I will be watching for a down move.

In closing: We are coming into the heart of the first part of earnings with some big names that WILL move the mkt. Some of my favorite trades are the over reaction to good / bad news plays. Big moves that happen in minutes. I try to play the opposite of those. I would not advise it for anyone else as they are very risky and very quick plays, but lots of fun if you get em right.

To me, most all the charts looked like they have topped, but the news can change that quickly, so listen carefully to what is going on. Trade cautiously and quickly and prosper. AKOT

Sir Top’em hat

Had to do a quick post today. I know I was expecting a down day today, but this might be even a little worse. The closer the DOW gets to 10,000, the more the bulls will want to push up to 10k, and I think that has a huge possibility of causing a reactionary sell off;Remember $100 a barrel oil? Although I am still not convinced that we will make it. Oh, I know how close we are but I think tech is holding us back, but that could be easily remedied with some bte from GOOG and IBM. Chart time:

That support on the VIX held again, it must be watched closely. Note that last time it hung around here for 10 days, odds are it won’t be that long this time around, and I expect more bouncing around with a volatile week ( which started today)

The NAS still is looking toppier than ever, with a nice spin top doji on resistance. However, the DOW and S&P seem somewhat stronger than the NAS, but not so much the…

…RUT, it is meeting some serious resistance. It is very possible that the combo of both of these indices may drag this whole mkt. down a bit.

Here is one of my bear calls from this weekend, not too bad eh? Down 2.5% today with room to go.

Check out this bearish engulfing candle, the v is not very impressive so this could be one of those move sideways to up a little before selling off.

PLCE recently broke out but this rally is stalling quickly. I really like this because of history, and history says that this stock usually follows what the last v spike was for a little while, and that big v spike you see from 10-8 was a down day. Further, as I noted on the chart, a tombstone doji outside the top bb usually spells short term doom. Watch the old resistance to see if it acts as support.

last one, I will tweet some more later but Mrs. akoptiontrader is calling dinner. XOM is one we have been watching and has now run into the 200 and top resistance, it is in make or break mode here. However, it is not uncommon for this to breach above the 200 ma, but not maintain the move, so tread cautious. My guess, I think it will head back down again, and form a new lower low, but hey that’s just me. AKOT

Short term selling?

Puts have been kind to us these last few days, will it continue? I think it will, but how low depends on some trend breaks. We cannot be sure that this is the ultimate top we have been looking for until those lines are broke. I have thought we have formed a top more than once only to see the bulls thwart gravity time and time again. Today, we again had some buying into the close, but it was followed by more selling. This mkt. has a bearish feeling for sure. There is some econ news coming out tomorrow that could move this mkt. , and other than new home sales, it all comes out before the open. On Tues I bought puts on the SPY at 108, and sold them at the end of the day. Today I bought puts on the SPY as soon as the housing numbers came out, and got stopped out with about 1/2 my max profit for the day. This was because I had a meeting and could not watch the mkt. I then bought some more SPY puts right at the close. You can see I still do not trust this mkt. I am very reluctant to hold over night, but I felt that Friday may be a good day to be on the short side, especially if the new home sales come out wte. So I am positioned short and will likely sell if we gap down. RIMM was crushed after reporting after hours, and that my friends is a mkt. mover. Now onto the charts:

The VIX has shown good strength the last two days. Even when the mkt. was moving up today, the VIX showed strength. Notice we never had a close beneath that 22.77 support line. The next level to watch is the $25.75 area to see if it offers resistance.

The DOW has formed a spinning top on not impressive v. It did close beneath the up trend line, but not by much. This would actually be a decent reversal spot for an up move here, but the other indices don’t seem to be lending to that theory. Watching for support at 9633.

The SPX looks exceptionally more bearish to me than the DOW. A very nice bodied candle today forming a hanging fruit. Now the mass of trend lines you see there are not that strong. All of them broke to the upside fairly easy, so if we keep falling I think we will likely see support near the 1035 area.

Remember this resistance line? Well it held pretty strong. We cannot be sure that this is the ultimate hold quite yet, for a re-test could be in the future, but for now it held strong. There is an up trend and a 50% fib line nearby to offer support, but they are both a little ways away. Still bearish looking chart.

I really would love to short the QQQQs again, but I will wait until this up trend line has been broke. In fact, I will be very tempted to buy some calls when it hits it again. Note the good v, not great but good v the last two days in conjunction with this down move.

I really like that the SPY broke beneath this pivot line. It looks pretty bearish with almost identical v. Watching for multiple up trend lines to offer support.

The $RUT looks like it set up a perfect drop off resistance from a rocket move up. To make it more perfect, we would see a re-test of that resistance after some move down.

It looked like XLU would breakout, but it stalled out and is trending down. I would watch for this to find support at around $28.50 if we are to maintain this pattern of higher highs and higher lows. If not, then a new down trend will be in effect.

Double top came to fruition on XLI with nice v today. Looking at $25.60 for support.

Still watching this range within a range. I have been watching for a breakout of this mini range, and after this nice v pop today, we could be on the verge of a breakdown. When we do, we could have a $3-4 move down, very profitable.

PHM finally broke down neckline of H&S. Would love to see a little move up here and then enter a short position. But a break of this %61 fib, equals a great short entry for probable long term down move. Tomorrow’s housing data will play a key role.

Dell has found support after announcing the offer for PEROT. But it looks like it wants to fall off this cliff to me. A break of $15.65 should be a good put play, a move up from here and I would be looking to short at around $16.75.

Finally, waiting for a breakout / down of IRIS from this wedge. Note the 200 ma is very close by to offer support. A break beneath is should be pretty bearish.

In closing: I lost power half way through this post, so I didn’t go into as much detail as usual on the charts so I could get it uploaded. Short term I am bearish, long term I am bearish, but we will probably have an up move in the intermediate. I am not yet sure this is the top, and until we break some trend lines I will not say we have. Trade well and prosper. AKOT