Man was I off!

So much for the H&S rally eh? So now what? Well everything looks bearish that is for sure. Talking to Cash, he thinks if we have a good gap down open tomorrow, that could be a buying opportunity. It definitely could be a possibility, in fact I thought that may be the case today and that is why I went long early. I was doing well until the huge fast down spiral. Well here is a video for the middle of the week. I tried some more different settings for my video capture software and it is still off. I will keep working on it. Thanks for your patience and I will give you a full refund if you are not fully satisfied.

OH YEAH, I have added a real time chat window to the right sidebar. I know sometimes it says I am not on, but I may be so type something and see if I respond. I signed up at meebo.com and I will put a page explaining it this weekend. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Election Novembers

According to the Stock Trader’s Alamanac, Election Novembers are the # 1 months of all the months. However this is for the DOW, for NAS it is the #7 month. Generally election years finish strong into the end of the year. What we would like to see is a rally up to DOW 10,000 to 10,500, then get ready for a free fall. I have included another video with some updates on some of the stocks we have been watching.I am still working on the sound issue, so it lags behind. I have tried different settings etc. and I will keep doing so until it is solved. Thanks & Enjoy. AKOT

Updater

More volatility is the rule of the day. Amazing how dull the market felt all day until the last 1/2 hour or so again!! You would think that eventually that last hour move would fail, but it hasn’t. If you can game it, keep playing it until it doesn’t work. I wasn’t able to play it today, but I may try it tomorrow. We closed beneath that major support again, making it stronger and stronger resistance. It is going to take a powerful move to get us up above it again. Something with some real volume to it. 

Check out how well the S&P futures are following the fib fan on the 30 min. chart. This is a chart I watch intra-day to gauge the overall mkt. It actually looks poised to make a up move. 

 

SP Futures chart with Fib Fan

 

This is OXPS, I sold this one this am. It was not moving up like I thought it might so I took a small loss. 

 

OXPS

Next we have CREE. I sold this one for a decent profit today, but I missed the big move at the end of the day, but it was on major support so I felt it was time to go. I will watch to see if it breaks support. 

 

CREE

The next ones are updates that are still playable. I have told you that I don’t trade all of these with real money. I only like to do about 6 real trades a week, and that is a busy week for me. 

 

JPM

JPM seems really bearish to me. This one should be a good move.

 

GILD

This is a little more speculative, but I really think it will fall. 

 

SYNA

One of our old favorites. If it breaks that neckline it should tank. I would wait for it to close beneath the neckline before I jumped in. Of course….

Trade short and prosper people. AKOT

There’s no support at all.

Well, we have finally closed beneath some major support. Where do we go from here? I am not sure. I don’t think anyone knows. Could we keep going down? Technically speaking I believe so. I will be watching this week witha  bearish bias. Check out the video if you want to find out why. I also added a few stocks to watch next week. Interesting to note, if you want to play options, you should be looking at least one month out. 

Monday should give us an idea if there are any bulls willing to step in and buy. I still don’t see a reason to do so myself, so I would be very cautious of any rally. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

OOPS!

I forgot to hit the publish button last night, instead hitting the save button, therefore last nights post was never posted. Now it is. Sorry about that. Now on to today:

Instead of looking long term tonight, I went short term. AAPL and YHOO reported after hours, AAPL bte, but guided lower, as they often do. YHOO, not sure what to make of their E. They are cutting jobs which is good. 

Both seemed to move positively in the after hours, but the real test will be tomorrow. 

The NDX, in this short term chart, is hitting resistance, perhaps a short term double bottom. It definitely could be poised for a bounce up.

 

The SP is in a wedge pattern, clearly should be moving down to the 900 area. It is also in the middle of a couple of fibs. 

Same chart with the wedge re-drawn. These are 30 min charts. So now it is poised for a breakout, maybe more so to the upside. If you look at the indicators, they both have a bearish slant.

 

A check on our plays. GAS came back just like we thought. Now we should be looking for the up move. It still hasn’t come all the way to 41.50, but it may not make it there. It bears watching.  

And the playable options are definitely out in time. Notice the movement and interest in Jan options. That is what I will be playing. Not great spreads, but not terrible considering the time. The prices got jacked up today, so if it does come back to 41.50, they should be much better priced. 

 

Check out how this thing is just stuck on the 50% fib. It just won’t budge either way. Still, with the decline in v, I am looking for a drop. What makes me doubt that a little is that today we had a pretty good drop and it dropped 2.2%. All indicators still indicate down move. 

That is it. Bed time;4:45 comes early in the morning. AKOT

I told you not to trade options the day after 3f.

I didn’t follow my own rule, I didn’t sell in the first hour. It felt bullish so I held my position. You remember how I said I don’t like to trade options the 2 days after 3f? Well here is why.

This chart is of the Qs. Notice it opened up decent but ended the day up more than .30 than it was at its 10am high? So naturally, that option should have been up about .3-.10 than at that time right? WRONG! Look at the next chart in the same time frame. This was the option I was playing on Friday. I was up decent on Friday, ended up being down a little today by the end of the day.

 

QQQQ

 

Q options

same time frame, same day. Notice how the “delta” did not track with the Qs. That end of day rally did not happen hardly at all. I was up a little at the open, like I thought, but I wasn’t up “enough”. Not smart on my part. However, by Weds. all should be well and right in the world again. 

Here is the NAS. 

 

NQ

Notice how we are in the middle of no-man’s land. Therefore, I could see us continue up a little, or down. However, we are in that trading range from 1550 to 1900 and we are currently in an up to 1900 move, so I would lean to heading up. VIX was down huge at times today which is usually bullish.

Here is one of our old plays that had a very strong move up today, GAS. Look at that surge, over 7% up. It blew through some strong resistance, I am sure due to the NRG unsolicited take over bid today. Can it continue? Possibly, but with that weak volume I would be leaning towards shorting it back to the 41.50 area. It is definitely in an uptrend, so I would then be playing it back up. However, I would wait till the options level out a little if you want to play options. Check out these craaaazzzzyyy spreads!

 

GAS Option chain

Here is another blast from the recent past, JPM. Check out where it is hanging right now. 

 

JPM

It is right near the 50% fib, my favorite of all the fibs. It is still in the megaphone pattern and due for a down move. It is trapped in between the 200 ma and the 50 fib. The candles look bullish, the v looks bearish. It is in a short 4 day up move with a classic decreasing v pattern, hittin the 200 ma, I am calling DOWN. There it is out there, I can’t take it back now. HOWEVER, again look at the option chain.

 

JPM Option chain

Not near as bad as GAS, so although they are not great they are definitely playable. I will be watching this one for the breakout down, against the candle to 37.50.

All righty, that is enough for me tonight. I will look through some more charts and try to find some more individual plays for this week.