The TOL bell rings for the market

Well today was actually a lot more like I thought the first few days of this week might be. I thought we might grind a little higher, not blast off like yesterday. That was a little crazy. Obviously we had a lot of dojis out there today in chartland. I still think we could grind a little higher, and then we are in a make or break area. The make means we punch out to new highs all around, the break means some resistance holds and only the DOW makes a new high. I figure the TOL news after hours (strong pre-earnings guidance) tonight could definitely be the catalyst to start us on the up track tomorrow. In the current economic condition, TOL, BZH, PHM, all those housing stocks are key indicators in this “recovery”. They were all hot stocks and people want some more of that magic, and the big dogs would love to give it to them, and then take it away. Chart time:

The VIX smashed through the first three levels of support, but it seems to have held up here a little, at least for two days. You can see on that last move down it stalled out for three days before dropping, and that would make sense here since we have on more day of no real news.

The DOW is still the strongest and off to the races. I must admit the v is increasing overall ever so slightly, but it currently is in a bearish divergence. Again, the most logical area for a reversal, to me, is 10360. In fact, the perfect scenario for a reversal down would be to have a very strong move up into that area, with some selling into the close leaving a great big top wick. However, if we grind slowly into it, then I think we may continue higher. Either way I don’t think it will be easily breached.

Now normally you would hear me squawking about this being a great reversal point, and it should be. However if you check out my ever so subtle blue arrows, you will see that we had similar formations in the midst of up moves. Granted, this one is very close to some past resistance and should be stronger, but a move to 1100 just seems to make sense to me. Then I will look hard at shorting the SPY. Further, if we get a second reversal candle tomorrow, I will be scoping hard for weakness.

Of the three indices, the NAS continues to have the possibility of a true h&s formation. I like how it has stalled out here on the up trend line with a decent reversal candle. We also have an open gap that will want to be filled soon.

In my eyes, the UUP had some interesting movement the last two days. I love how it touched the top of that down trend line and pulled back. Today was a long-tailed day with decent v and I would not be surprised to see it move up some from here. As I type this, the EUR/USD is down a few pips and looks to be forming a top after the big up move on Monday. UUP up, market down, UUP down market up.

Nice doji on previous high and underside of up trend. This is a key area and easily playable, a break above 26.60 should be a good long signal, a move below 26.50 should be a good short signal.

This is the third time the XLI has tested this top, so we are either forming a triple top or a breakout. Knowing how strong the DOW has been I would lean towards breakout, but this is almost a bearish harami on resistance, usually a pretty decent reversal sign. Again, playable either way with today’s high and low as buy signals and the fib as your stop.

Due to TOL, I think we will see the XHB breakout of this wedge to the upside. But, depending on how far the mkt. moves, it will likely be a short-lived move.

Sticking with the X theme today, I like this re-test of this sloppy h&s. I would like it even more if we had moved up another .50 today, but I still think it is playable and will likely re-test the 200 ma.

In closing: I am expecting some more grinding tomorrow, but then again I was expecting grinding on Monday as well. I could see the NAS & SPX dragging the DOW down a little, and if we move down from here I think that we should expect a move up into some new highs in the DOW. But, if we move up big and sell off into the close, I think that will signal a top. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

 

 

A bounce makes sense

We had a whole lot of nothing going on today. That really isn’t true, a savvy day trader certainly could have banked some buck today, but I don’t have the time or inclination for that type of trading on a regular basis. Once in a while is fine, just not every day. I decided to keep my SPY calls thinking that we set up some nice up move signs today, and also thinking we may move up into the FOMC un-announcement. Personally, I think unless there is an interest rate change, we put waaaayyyy tooo much emphasis on the “wording”. In case you haven’t heard they re-use most of the statement. Everyone just wants that one or two words. IMHO, I think we still have another shoe to drop, a big shoe, and I think a lot of people are going to get hurt when it falls, and if I am right, then I will be prepared to strive mightily. If I am wrong, then I will do my best to keep trading the mkt. as it gives what it shall.

In the past, I have usually played the Fed as a counter play, almost every time. I wait for the initial over reaction, wait ( unlike Monday) for a nice looking entry point on the 5 minute chart, then go against the move. If I don’t see that counter forming very soon, then I look to go with the move because I think it is going to be a big one. Now, I don’t know if that will work tomorrow since this really is an un-announcement, but I will be watching for it. What was that? Enough gabbing, you want some charts? Well, fine then:

The VIX did break through yesterday’s support, and my target for the VIX is in the 25 area. Now, if the megaphone pattern keeps playing out, then we are headed to the 20 area and this mkt. will rise hard, but I don’t think that is the case.

I cleaned up the charts just for ease of viewing. Now, the DOW continues to look the most bullish long-term. The recent up trend is still in tact, there is significant support, and to make a h&s pattern here we would need to drop to the 9400 area, a long ways from here. If we break above 9900, we are back in rally mode, but I think it will hold this time, not because of the DOW , but because of everything else. Perhaps this is telling us that when this mkt. falls, the DOW stocks will be some of the best ones to be in.

The SPX really looks poised for a bounce here, hence me staying long SPY. Note that we are sitting on the bbb, and that most often predicates an up move of some type. I know that we have the 50 and 20 mas above, but we have blown right through them in the past and I think we do the same here. I also like that the RSI is so low, that give it room to move up.

This looks even more bullish to me right here, so why the heck am I in the SPY? Well at the time it was the right decision. In fact, I probably should have went long the QQQQ as well today, with an easy stop at this NAS support. This could be the beginning of a beautiful shorting opportunity that I am afraid everyone will be chortling about a few weeks from now. We could see the old h&s off a bounce from here after this nice doji followed by a huge bullish engulfing today. The only thing to note is that it stopped right at my resistance line, so perhaps this will be strong resistance. If we have any good pre-market news, a gap above would be fitting.

Again, much of the same on the SPY, on decent support but not as good as the NAS support.

Morning tweet, nice earnings, very nice range trading since August, looking for more of the same following this bullish engulfing near support.

Crucial point, mixed earnings today, beat by .07 but guided lower. It looks to me like the buyers are winning out and this support will hold. It will also make a great stop, in case the bears take over, either way there is a clear delineation.

A couple of the AG stocks looked pretty good to me, this is one of them. POT is testing the 200 ma and 4/5 times it has held. Further, the RSI is making higher lows and we had a bullish engulfing today. Yes there is resistance above, but I would classify it as minor. Given enough time before the whole mkt. starts moving back down, I could see us hitting 105 again.

AGU is set up for a bounce but on slightly different terms. It has earnings tomorrow morning, and I think if they follow suit we could see a very nice up move tomorrow with follow through. If that support gives way, the way I would trade it is wait for a retest then short, but that’s just me.

Let’s finish with some GDX. This was very, very strong today. The v was huge, the RSI is setting up great for an up move and I think $51 is there to be taken.

In closing: If you noticed, I put a lot of up charts on the blog today, because that is what I am seeing. I think we need some more up before we see more down. Of course the news the rest of the week can pretty much trash that theory and we could just drop like a rock, but you know what I think. I will be leaning a little more to the long side, just for the short-term. AKOT

Chip off the old block, INTC

Well so much for that volatility eh? Not really, if you looked at the calendar on Sunday’s video, I expected most of the volatility to start tomorrow morning. We had no real news or big dog earnings come out until tonight, and that should kick off the movement I am anticipating.

Although the charts are still very toppy ( see yesterday’s post) INTC came out with earnings after hours and blew the lid off in every category and then guided higher. You can’t get much better than that. The interesting conundrum here is that tomorrow morning retail sales comes out, and if INTC is an indicator, and I don’t know if it is or not, then ex-auto retail sales should blow the doors of the expected -0.2% fall. IF it does, then I think we take out DOW 10,000 tomorrow. IF it does not, then I think it will give the impression to expect economic news the rest of the week, and lead to some selling.  Then the rest of the week should move the same, earnings after hours, econ news in the morning, exp. on Friday, hence the volatility.

I tried to short the XLF today, and messed up my order. I meant to buy if we broke the morning lows, but I entered “above” on my conditional order and got filled right away. OOPs! So I held it and threw down a decent stop and got stopped out. Hate when that happens ( yes I have done that once before!) If I had entered my order properly, it would’ve never been filled, which is fine since I was traveling all day and could not look at a computer.  Needless to say, tomorrow morning I will be waiting for direction. I am going to watch v with any strong move, and possibly try to play opposite moves up and or down for some quick intra-day trades. Let’s look at some charts, even though they really haven’t changed too much since last night.

The VIX looked like it really wanted to rally this morning. In fact, I tweeted how it was up in the midst of the morning rally, alas that did not last. I have already said that last time we spent 10 days in this area, so it may be a sludgy few days here, but as far as candlesticks go, this is a pretty strong reversal signal.

The DOW managed to hold above that 9850 area, barely, and formed a nice hanging man doji, just dangling and waiting to drop. So strictly on TA, this chart looks poised for a reversal, but with all the news and earnings coming out the next few days, I would very careful. As I said, I could see the bulls bum- rushing this thing above 10 k just cuz they want 10 k. At that point, I will be shorting something!

The SPX, same scenario as the DOW, but the up trend line served as support once again.

I really thought this was the chart most poised for a reversal the last couple days, and whadya know, it is the only one of the three that ended up in the green! What a call eh? None-the-less I would be hard pressed to call this an up day, more like unchanged and still technically stalled out and poised to head down. Now that INTC has come out and hit for the cycle, I imagine, depending on the morning news, that we will gap up big in the morning. Could be a good play against the grain on the QQQQ if that happens.

I am almost scared to say this, but it looks like the almighty dollar may be bottoming a little. It certainly rallied off of its lows today on okay v. I would not be surprised to see a move up here tomorrow, no matter what the econ news is.

ENER has earnings in few days, but it hit resistance in textbook form yesterday, and had a down inside day today. I will be looking for follow through to the down side, perhaps testing $10 again before earnings.

CAB, I have tweeted this one a few times recently and it has delivered. It has stalled out on the 20 ma here, but it looks like hanging fruit waiting to fall. I like it to test the $12.50 area again, but again earnings on 10/26.

Wrote myself a cute little note, since this is BKS and all about writing and books and coffee, and snacks and music and……. I like how the 200 ma has offered a lot of support, so I am watching for support again, but if it fails then short to the $17.50 area.

I thought BKE looked a little bearish here, similar to PLCE which I tweeted about yesterday and then finished up today. I don’t think move will last btw. I like the v on this chart into the strong selling. Perhaps we will see a small bounce before dropping some more.

This was a morning tweet, ARM and it looked to be forming a bear engulfing, but that did not last. Instead we have another spin top doji, which still signals indecision / reversal and since we are near the top range, I will be watching for a down move.

In closing: We are coming into the heart of the first part of earnings with some big names that WILL move the mkt. Some of my favorite trades are the over reaction to good / bad news plays. Big moves that happen in minutes. I try to play the opposite of those. I would not advise it for anyone else as they are very risky and very quick plays, but lots of fun if you get em right.

To me, most all the charts looked like they have topped, but the news can change that quickly, so listen carefully to what is going on. Trade cautiously and quickly and prosper. AKOT

Weekly Video

Well we are in breakout city now aren’t we? All the major indices broke to the upside and the new highs will now become crucial pivot / support areas. Bernanke says things are peachy and getting better, cash for clunkers is a government masterpiece (heavy sarcasm), and even though the jobs numbers continue to fall, things are much better (we will likely see a little pop in the jobs # due to GM hiring back workers). Well I plan to play these up moves, but cautiously, and I believe, along with many savy traders, that the emperor wears no clothes. But the market will do what the market will do and our job is to trade it. That is why you have seen me adding more upside trades over the last few weeks. I think Tuesday’s consumer confidence and Friday’s personal spending numbers could be market moving events. Please for you to enjoy:

briefing.com

Weekly Video 8-16-2009

So Colonial Bank gets shut down by the Feds, after hours on Friday. Tricky eh? Guess what, we will likely pay the piper Monday. It’s “little” things like this that will really tell us where this mkt. is. If we end up down over 100 points on Monday, then this mkt. could definitely be on the verge of a drop. If we drop hard and rally into the close again, then there are still a lot of buyers out there and this mkt. is not yet ready to turn. Further, we have housing and job news this week. Last week they were bad and we rallied, let us see what happens this week. I will blog on them later this week. Now on to this weeks video and economic news.

Briefing.com

The FOMC, Fake Out Most Chumps ( but not us)

Well support acted like support today, and it supported and caused a bounce. The housing news came out a little wte, but the mkt. did not drop like a rock, like I thought it might after the news came out. Instead, the dollar dropped like a rock keeping the mkt. afloat, further the support we talked about earlier this week has come into play and we are in bounce city. I actually think this is probably going to be a good short area coming up the next couple days. Tomorrow we have news galore, durable orders, new home sales (see yesterday’s post) , crude inventories and FOMC. Yes the FOMC rate decision, uhhhh this is a non-decision. The only thing they could do would be raise the rates, and that ain’t gonna happen. If they did, we would see a -300+ day tomorrow, IMHO, and I would be happy. The key will be their wording, which I bet will sound almost exactly like last time. Barring any surprises, I think we could probably bounce up a little more, but if we open up or gap up for some strange reason, we will likely have a sell off later in the day. Chart time:

First off all ignore that long red tail it’s a bad tick. The VIX was slightly negative today, but it did not fill the gap. It is kind of in a flux here, meeting a weak resistance line, but really just kind of out there. I could see it falling or dropping from here, neither would surprise me. A lot of help I was here eh?

Now the DOW, it bounced off some support off the previous resistance, and the BBB,  like we thought it might. I think it may goof around in this area for a couple days, and perhaps form a right shoulder. If it does, that would be very bearish for the mkt. In fact, I think it would actually be less bearish if it broke support and dropped from here. Don’t get me wrong, it would be bearish, but not as bearish.

So the NASDAQ has a similar type of formation, but with more room to drop. That is why I played puts on the Qs today. Oh btw, I don’t think I could’ve picked a worse entry point if I tried!! I set an auto order while I was on the road and boy did it get filled. Anyway, this bounced off of what I would call a very weak up trend line. It still has the 50 ma to break, but I see us retesting that 1675 area soon. I think this may be the leader down when it is time.

The RUT looks the most bearish of the indicies. It broke support ,it broke the 50 ma, and barely cleared the 200 ma. There is a secondary trend line around the 475 area, and it will likely retest the 200 ma, but it still looks bearish in the intermediate.

The S&P 500 has already retested the 200 ma. Usually it will drop a few more days than this and retest it again. That is what I think is likely. I could see us hitting the 875 area, retesting the 200 ma, perhaps forming a right shoulder, and then dropping hard.

The SPY, however, landed on the 200 ma, bounced and is now trapped between previous support, a fib line, the BBB, and in a mini-down channel. This poor thing doesn’t know if it is coming or going. I say going, down more soon. I see it hitting the $87 along with the SPX like it is supposed to.

The QQQQ on 60 min. chart. See my intra-day support and how great it held. Well I put my buy order in about 3-4 cents beneath that, instead of 5 cents like normal, and I tapped it right near the bottom. Oh yeh, that was on PUTS! So I am down a few cents but still holding on. I will sell if we hit $35.35. But it looks to me like we are forming what I call “ladders” a series of bear flags. I be watching closely tomorrow for sure.

Note how the 50 ma plays a key role in the QLD. Well it did it again today. It usually takes about 3 attempts to break through, and with this weak v I would expect at least that for a solid break of the 50 ma. If we get a v bump, it could be much quicker.

The QID has the same issue with the 50 ma. But we have not yet hit it. This one could touch it and drop quickly, or goof around on the line for a few days. Again without some serious v I don’t see it plowing right through.

In Closing: Long term I am still very bearish. Things are worse than the country wants to believe, and the news will say, and I bet the FOMC puts a positive spin on things tomorrow. But even the president is now admitting his attempt to end the recession did not work, and he needs to try again. Don’t be fooled. We are in the process of turning a corner and it will be painful to many, but not us. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Weekly Video 6-21-09

We had a pretty good week last week. A little choppy the last couple days, but other than that it was very tradeable and profitable. I hope all of you did awesome. Now what does this week hold? Well we never know but we can see what it appears via some technical analysis. You can see below we have a ton of data coming out next week that is going to move this mkt. I think the housing news may be a little wte, all others possibly a little bte. I think by August most everything we be guided down, which going into then will make it bearish, but it also makes it easier to beat expectations. To me all the charts still look pretty bearish, and I will be poised to trade that way this week. BUT with key data M-Th, anything can happen. One of my old favorite trades was to trade the opposite of the news for the day. I would wait for the pop, and then quickly buy some puts on my favorite index. Or wait for the drop and buy some calls. It seemed to work much better with the pops than the drops, but it was effective either way. I have not done that trade lately because this mkt. has been acting a little spooky, but I may try it again this week. If I do I will twitter it so you can see if it worked or not. Well onto the video and economic data for the week.

Here is this weeks economic data, thanks to briefing.com. If you don’t subscribe you  should.

Now for this week’s video, please for you to enjoy:

Beazer is no Teaser.

Well I expected a pop today, but after yesterday I thought we may have already seen the “pop”, we had not. The initial claims and leading indicators both came out bte and gave this mkt. quite the pop. I watched the internals hard, and I saw them weakening and tweeted such, and the mkt. followed, but not near as far as I thought. I suspected we would end in the red today, and it looked like we tried to head that way, but some late buying came in and put a halt to it. Tomorrow is going to be very interesting. We have no real data coming out, other than RIMM tonight came out slightly bte. But its comments were not all that convincing and it sold off a bit after the close. RIMM can be a NAS mover.

This is the VIX on a 60 min. chart. I really thought we would see a little more support offered by the secondary trend line. But then again, the VIX often does its own thing and it did so today. You can see a stall out and slight move up the last few hours of the day, but nothing too impressive. It did close above 30, which may be the missing support line. Let’s watch to see if the 30 holds, if it does that will be bearish for the mkt.

The DOW moved up hard on the bte economic news on very light v. The doji from yesterday do give us a bounce after all. Note the the past support line, that line should be very very strong, and it did not give way today, nor do I imagine it will give way tomorrow. It is a pretty nice little 3 candle reversal we have formed, but not nearly as good as if it had come after a long move in one direction.

Very similar chart on the S&P 500. We did close above a secondary trend line and we did bounce off the 200 ma, which if you recall I was expecting. I think we will need some v to break through as I have been calling for. Tomorrow certainly could provide some extra v as the catalyst to confirm this down move. It is 4f and in an uncertain mkt. you have to wonder how many people are going to hold over the weekend? Also there will be some option selling going on as well.

The possible H&S formation is still in tact. We bounced off the top of the gap, next support at the bottom of the gap. The up trend will now act as resistance, and we could certainly see a move down from here.

This a a 60 min. chart of the QQQQ. You can see my bear flag from yesterday, which didn’t act like a perfect bear flag, but hey it worked. Today we traded within the daily support/resistance zones. If you recall I said the 35.60 area was key and I was looking for a strong move beneath for some more shorting opportunities. Well I thought they were on deck, but they never fully developed. In fact, I didn’t draw it on there, but we have a real nice wedge forming from the last 10 candles. We are in breakout / breakdown zone. Look for another run at 35.60 with some V to confirm the down move.

I tweeted this one early today:

when it looked like the above chart. Here is how it finished:

Looke pretty bearish eh? I still think we test the top of that wedge, at least around the $14.50, probably lower. Still playable. From there, watch for another move up.

This looks like a decent bull flag to me. Watch for confirmation before playing, but a pop to $22.50 wouldn’t be out of the question.

another tweet, you can look how it finished the day and watch for the break of $21.50 . It actually formed a reversal candle today, so we have to see if it holds true.

Finally I sold all my BZH today near the bottom. It just moved way too much not to lock in the profits, and I thought I may get another chance to play it down again at a better price. I saw it hitting that 50 ma and sold there. This my friends is the way to break support, nice v and strong move down. These breakout trades, when they move as expected, are some of the most profitable, but hardest to time. I was blessed with this trade.

In closing: I see more down side coming. The H&S theory is still in tact, and with 4f tomorrow, and no real catalysts, I can see some selling tomorrow. Or we could chop cabbage all day and end up with sauerkraut. I vote for the down move. AKOT

Confirmation Day, or running out of energy.

Unfortunately, I was never by the office today, on the road all day. So I had to watch the mkt. through my iphone, and the charts on there are minimal. But it appears that I did not miss much eh? So let’s look at some charts and see what we can see:

The VIX wanted to sell off, but then she rallied right back up to the red zone, not in it but up to it. I didn’t draw it up but it is actually forming a diamond pattern. You can see resistance is near, but the VIX has been acting odd, making me think we are close to something.

The DOW acted pretty much like I thought may happen today, it moved up hit and went through the 200ma and then pulled back. I would not be surprised to see a gap down tomorrow and a strong move down tomorrow.

The S&P is in an up channel still. In fact it just recently moved back into the channel yesterday. Now that it has been pierced, I feel it won’t offer as much support. We closed with a spinning top on a support  line. We can look for confirmation tomorrow, up move bullish down move very bearish.

As I was looking at the NAS something that has been staring me in the face occurred to me, Are we trying to fill the gap from October? That may be behind the strength of this move. But we may have exhausted our up move with an exhaustion gap yesterday, no conviction today, therefore looking for sell off tomorrow. If not, then I will play up cautiously. 

I tweeted this earlier, the QQQQ is outside the tbb (top bollinger band) and the last two times this occurred…. well I circled em for you. Could be a serious topping wick that formed today as well. No conviction today is somewhat bearish.

I show this chart because I thought there was a problem, but I checked and this candle is correct. It closed right on support and it is above 200ma, so this actually looks bullish to me. But, it goes against the indicies, and I have to go with the indicies. 

INTC has a gap and a bearish harami, easy to see a move to the 200ma from here. 

Here is one we haven’t touched in a while, HPQ.  I like the down trend, the 200ma the declining v, and  pretty convincing top wick today. It is actually in a flag or wedge. We could easily see $34 here. 

BKE has been trying to break above resistance without any luck. V has been decreasing, with the up move and it just looks to me like this move is petering out. I would look for it to move down to the up trend line.

You can see in the XLE we were in a range for quite a while, then dropped out of it and right back into it and now up to the other side. I like the gap up , bearish harami, and being outside the tbb. I would love it if it were at 57.50, filling a gap. Still, great short to the 200ma, and then perhaps long again, we’ll see.

Since we are looking to short energy I thought I would throw one in there for you to chew on, COP. Pretty similar to XLE, gap up, nice doji, outside tbb. If we see a significant down move tomorrow, that would be very bearish for COP.

In closing: Well I hate to sound like a broken record, and like one reader lamented me, I could go crazy sitting on the sidelines, and I just might. Except I am not on the sidelines, I am SHORT, and I am in the RED, but not for long. Tomorrow is confirmation day, watch for it.

X marks the spot

Will this mkt. blew through my consolidation zones today, and I mean blew through. But with that came an unexpected result. Remember I have been saying we would see a sell off in June, probably the second week. Now I think that this mkt. has move my time frame up a bit.

The first thing that caught my eye was the VIX. This mkt. rallied like a madman, and I was patiently waiting for a short entry. Then after a while I did not think it would come. But I knew I had missed the boat on the long side, so I was on the sidelines. I looked at the VIX, and though the mkt. was up 170, the VIX was barely down. And then it started to rally, and so did the mkt. While I was waiting I had time to read, and what I saw was interesting. I read a few articles on how a lot of money is shorting this mkt., including me. Hence, that would make sense while the volatility is rising in a rising mkt. So on this 60 min chart, you can see the strength going into the end of the day, this confirmed my thought.

 

So here is the NAS on a 60 min. chart. What I noticed about this is that almost every single gap was filled very quickly, and we made ourselves a huge gap today. Another reason I wanted to short this rally. 

So I finally found what I thought was a great entry point, albeit a little soon I knew, but I jumped in. You can see the circle and you can see that my entry point was not so great after all. Now, I was extremely busy all day and I was going to put in a stop, and I didn’t. I wasn’t too concerned because when I got in the mkt. was up a little over 200 points and I didn’t figure it would go much higher, which it did. I see at 3:15 I was doing quite well and then we had another rally, on strong v which should be a bullish signal. 

Now the S&P did destroy my down channel, that dirty bugger, but it did bow to the resistance of the 943 line. You see it could not forget through, but it has made a new high, which should be bullish. But I am still not fully convinced

here is the $RUT. Remember that down trend line? Well it got shattered with a gap today, and it closed above the 200ma. This looks bullish. I drew a new trend line just for the heck of it, because it was off that peak I disregarded with my past line. 

Finally the DOW. It too blew through my consolidation zone and reached up and smacked the 200ma, before pulling back. I could see it nudging up a bit more, but I bet it pulls back from here, at least a little. Now onto some other charts, mostly spiders.

GDX has been rallying, and now it has formed a nice doji, followed by a bearish engulfing candle. I think a sell off is imminent.

XLV is health care, and I care to say it is meeting some resistance. Further it is on the top bb and near the 200ma. V peaked today with a nice doji, could lead to a sell off from here.

XLK is looking strong as it broke the high of 5/6, but it is outside the top bb, with gap so I wouldn’t be shocked to see a slight sell off from here. 

XHB seems pretty bearish to me. I am still short BZH and I am down a little, but not too bad so I am holding on because this looks promising to me. 

The XLE blew up today off of a double bottom. Should drop a little here before taking off again.

XLF. Cash21 told me to look closely at this chart so I did. Note the wedge forming, note the tombstone doji, note the 200ma coming into play, and note that resistance it hit and retraced from. Also the financials did not cooperate fully in today’s move. Could this be the top for XLF? Could it take the rest of the mkt. down with it? 

In closing: As Cash21 and I were talking, we reminisced how it used to be when oil went up the mkt. went down, when inflation was near the mkt. sold off, when the fundamentals were terrible, the mkt. sold off. Now it is all backwards, and it is often frustrating. I would really like to be bullish, I have  a lot riding on a rising mkt. in my retirement so it does me good. But I have to tell you what I see and I still see that we are over sold and that things are NOT better. I think we are very very close to a top, especially with the way the VIX acted today. Cash21 says today was the top, is he right?