Is tomorrow Thursday?

All right so you are thinking man he missed that call today, but did I really? Remember I had my days wrong and yet I was looking for the gap up off of the good jobs numbers. Well that catalyst wasn’t there today, but it still pretty much ran as expected. Instead of a gap up, it gapped down and then rallied right back up to the zero, before selling off. The exact type of move I was looking for today, but in reverse. Now things have changed a bit for tomorrow. It seems like most of the indices are very close to support and it makes sense to me to see a positive move tomorrow, possibly even a big one. But I would expect more of a moderate move up. I still expect the data tomorrow pre-open to be bte, and depending on what happens with the euro and Greece, that should be enough to push this thing up a bit. I would expect some selling off of any big move up intra-day, so it could be one of those really up and down type of days, really hard to trade intra-day. Oh yeh, remember those SPY calls, well I sold them about 30 minutes in for a .40 loss per, manageable. If I had held em longer I would’ve actually got out even to up a little, but believe me I was happy with what I got, after my idiotic error last night.  Chart time:

Well I thought we would see a black candle today, I just didn’t think it would be this far above yesterday’s white candle. I think this wants to drop a little more, maybe to the 22 area.

The SPX formed a spinning top doji today, not the strongest of reversal signals. It also went below the 50 ma today, but did not reach support. Yet I could still see this bouncing a little from here.

You can see the NAS has pretty much the same thing going on here. Still it dropped a little more percentage wise than the SPX. Usually when it moves out of the bollinger bands like this, it tends to make a move back in, at least a little.

The RUT was once again the leader, falling over 1.5%. It stalled out on the bottom bollinger band and very near the 50 ma. This too looks ready for a little bounce here.

FSYS is sitting on support with bullish engulfing candle. Considering the overall mkt. this seems pretty bullish to me. I would use $27.25 as my stop on a long trade.

CAT too found support, but more on a long-term up trend and off the bottom bollinger band. Easy stop on break of the 50 ma.

In closing: There has a been a significant amount of selling lately, and I am looking for some value buyers to step in soon. If the data is good in the morning, and if things quiet down overseas, then tomorrow could be the day. I will be watching the EURO very closely as it has been tipping the hand of the mkt. all week. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

News Tremors

That was a bit more of a rally than I was expecting. In fact when the INDU was up about 120, I was looking for a sharp intra-day correction, that really didn’t occur until the end of the day and not until it rallied up another 50 points. I am still looking for a correction tomorrow, I am just not sure to what extent. The strength of today’s move surprised me and raises the odd slightly that there could be some follow through strength. I don’t think that will be the case, but I have to now consider it a very viable possibility. There is some minor news tomorrow, but pre-open there are a slew of earnings, no giants but possible mkt. movers on big surprises. The way things have been going, I would expect bte earnings to have a small effect as they have become the norm, and wte earnings to have a magnified effect. Chart time:

The VIX had a huge move up and now a huge move down. I looked back to 2007, where it was consolidated at this same level, when it would rally from 16 to 32 and saw something very similar to what we are seeing here. In 2007 it moved up to the 23 area, and then drop 5 points before heading back up. So I would not be surprised to see another move up, and I expected to find support near the gap.

The INDU managed to close above the solid resistance from the early April highs. Take note of the v however, notice that it has moved down two days in a row into this up move.

The SPX rocketed off the support, unlike the stall / bounce I was expecting. It took back the 20 ma rather easily, but a line once breached is much easier to breach the next time. I think if the SPX doesn’t take out Tuesday’s open by noon tomorrow, then I  will be looking for selling into the close.

The COMPQ closed beneath Tuesday’s open, but today was the first positive day of the last four, and it was significantly positive. Again, if it cannot stay above 2510 until after lunch, then I think a close around 2474 is likely.

I like this earnings gap down and mini rally to fizzle soon. I especially like the steadily decreasing v into this two-day up move. I think we see new lows very soon.

I thought HD would drop into the 20 ma and then rally into earnings. It looks like that is still a possibility here, seeing today’s uncertain hammer candle. I think this will be shortable tomorrow using today’s high as the stop.

In closing: I really feel like volatility is returning to this mkt. and I think we are set to see some more big moves. What I see is that the news is now causing mkt. tremors, instead of yawns. I am still looking for more selling before a rally to INDU 12k. There are a lot of logical support areas along the way and I will be watching them closely. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

The Friday Grinder

The charts all look pretty similar and they show some type of top forming. Likely, this will be a short-term top with more buying coming in on lengthened weakness. Unless there is an 80 point up move tomorrow, we will not reach DOW 11k like I thought this week. There is no planned big mkt. moving news tomorrow, so I think after the noise in the morning, and maybe a small move off of crude inventories at 10 am, the mkt. will pick a direction and grind that way. The last two days the selling was followed by buying, so perhaps there will be a big buy morning that spikes up and then is followed by some selling as traders close positions for the weekend. Whatever it does, I expect a very grinding afternoon. Chart time:

The VIX continues to hover around that 16 area. I am still looking for a big bounce off of here, but I understand that the longer it grinds around here, the more likely it is to fall.

The DOW has been in a very tight range. I don’t have it on the chart, but you can see where it broke out of the up trend via this sideways movement. Normally I would think of this as consolidation for a continuation move to the upside. But again, watch this range for the breakout / down move.

The SPX actually looks like it is forming a bit of a bull flag here. You can see it has done this repeatedly during this current up trend, each leading to another leg up.

The NASDAQ has entered an even tighter range than the DOW, with a very clear level of support at 2396. If it closes beneath that, then it will also be closing beneath the 20 ma for the first time since Feb 12. I think once we see that close beneath the 20, and not just a tail but a solid close, then we will see a significant correction of this current trend.

GLD had a nice breakout yesterday with a small follow through today. If it drops a little more or goes sideways, I will be looking to go long. Note the RSI is moving into the over-bought range, bu that it has no problem hanging out there for extended periods of time. The MACD still has room to the upside.

MON gapped down on earnings, then rallied back up to fill the gap, but those top wicks leave me suspicious of any further follow through. I am going to be bird dogging this for any weakness.

In closing: I am going to be looking for some very short- term trades in the morning, then I will likely take the rest of the day off. I don’t expect a lot of afternoon movement, and if I am going to enter any options trades, I will wait until very late in the day looking to not absorb so much weekend decay. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Jobs are on the way

There is some definite volatility showing, up moves are not holding, down moves aren’t continuing and the indices are not moving in sync. Things seem to be a little disjointed, but still the small cap and tech looks very strong. I know it makes no sense, but for some reason DOW 11,000 seems to be a little bit of a big deal.  I still think when it is taken out, it could be one of those big wick candles that signals an interim top. Tomorrow is consumer credit news, but I think the bigger news is Thursday with the continuing and initial claims. Have you noticed that our beloved government has been prepping the mkt. for bad jobs numbers? Be patient, the jobs will come, they are on the way…. yah in the form of 16,000 more government employees to handle all the bureaucracy of healthcare. Washington Examiner ( one of hundreds). Now for some happy uplifting stuff, stock charts:

The VIX is right back on key support, and I am still waiting for that big bounce up. But I know that the more support is tested, the more likely it is to break, and this is starting to look like spring ice.

Of all the indices, the 30 stocks of the DOW seem to be the weakest. That being said, it did have a pretty nice rally off the lows of the day, but in doing so it formed a nice long-legged doji cross. If you look closely you will see that a very similar cross was the start of this current rally.

The SPX still looks pretty strong, sliding up the topside of the bollinger band. The RSI looked like it was starting to trend down but it had a nice curl up today. The MACD isn’t quite there yet, but it is on the verge. I still think the top of this current never-ending ascending pennant may be the top of this move. That means SPX 1200 +.

The NASDAQ continues to be the bellwether leading the charge. Here you see another breakout, with a slight intra-day pullback. So it broke free of that support after 8 days.

I still like the EUR/USD to test this support, and then eventually break it.

KLAC is testing the bottom of this gap with two down v days in a row. Today it formed a spin top bearish harami doji, now that’s a mouthful. I think this is primed for a drop here, but watch for it to make a run at the top of the gap. Therefore, if I trade it short, I will use $32.98 as my stop, giving it a little room to play.

A very loose inverse head and shoulders that broke out. Now it is looking to re-test the neckline on declining v. If v continues to decline into this move, then I will look for bounce off that line. But it is playable either way using it as the pivot.

I liked the action on BKS today, and I am short it right now. EZ stop at $22.80. However, looking it I need to be cognizant of the up trend that it is in.

In closing: I will be watching for continued dis-jointedness in this mkt. and I will take that to mean that some sentiment is changing. As it stands with the RUT as strong as it is, this is a speculative mkt. I am leaning towards a slightly more directional day tomorrow and my game plan is to trade that way. Look for late night quick post tomorrow, oh and btw, trade well and prosper. AKOT

This market needs a little Proactive

Some late charts tonight as I just finished watching the game and my voice is gone, my head hurts and my heart is still beating hard. So not a lot of commentary tonight. One point I would like to make is that the mkt. really didn’t react to the bte news, it rallied a bit but not off the news. Keep watching that.

The VIX is still holding out, although it was down today it didn’t give up the ghost. Look for a move beneath Friday’s low for a big move up in the mkt.

I think it is only a matter of time before we take out DOW 11,000. I think we will see it this week as it continues to clearly trend to the upside. Note the declining v for two days in a row.

The SPX made another new high, and although still clearly over bought, it is just hanging out there and can for months.

The NAS is in a very tight range here. I think the trade is easy, a break out or break down with a second day follow through will be short-term direction. I also think this will lead the mkt. whichever way it goes.

The RUT is in breakout city. Note that the RSI and MACD are trending down in the midst of this rally, so this rally may be dying slowly, but for now it continues to rise with new highs.

One more chart for tonight, the EUR/USD. If you recall I said this thing looked like it was ready to break down again, and it did. To me it looks like it has quite a ways to go. I think we will see new short-term lows. Notes the lower high on the RSI.

In closing: I think DOW 11k is a forgone conclusion. But, it may be one of those big up moves that leaves a wick and pulls back right away. It also may signal a great place for this mkt. to take a breather from its breakouts. I will post a bunch of charts on twitter tonight, cuz I don’t think I will have time tomorrow night. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Blah

First of all,  a quick post tonight, and likely very short posts all week. I have meetings for three nights this week and then I will be traveling for two nights this week, for those of you new to trading, that equals 5. So every night I have something going on. Further, I once again feel as if I am coming down with something nasty, so my motivation and energy are currently very low.

As far as news goes, Case Shiller at 0900 and Consumer Confidence at 10, both can be mkt. movers. As far as the mkt. goes, the DOW was the only indice I saw that actually had a closing new high, all the others fell way short. So there is apparent strength in the big companies. I expect a kind of blah week as there are not a lot of traders on the floor this short trading week. Remember that the mkt. will be closed on Friday, and a lot of traders take this week off. Lots of times that leads to more volatility, but recently it has led to blah. The best way to trade blah, in my opinion, is through the selling of options, so I have been looking at that this week.

Despite being green for most of the day, the VIX finally closed beneath yesterday’ open, the first time that has happened in three days. I was told early on by Adam Warner Daily Options Report , that it is a Monday statistical quirk, and this guy knows what he is talking about when it comes to the VIX. Anyway, it eventually gave up the ghost and looks like it could very easily head lower here. Any near support does not greatly impress me.

As I mentioned above, the DOW did manage to close at a new short time high close, but check out that v. We have not had v that low since December . That was during that time when the DOW was hitting the same price level for 8/10 days, up and down. Great for some intra-day trades, rough for multi-day trades. I don’t have it drawn on here, but the DOW has hit the 10,850 level for 5 days in a row.

The SPX broke out of that bullish flag, but you can see that it failed to close at a new high. It too is blah and appears to be consolidating for a possible run up.

The NAS has a similar picture with that support I spoke of yesterday still holding strong. The big difference here is today’s candle. You can see it did not have near the strength of the other two, and remains in blah territory.

In closing: I will do my best to post some charts this week, and maybe even a few blog updates, but there are no promises. I will try to tweet some thoughts etc. so that I can keep in touch in case I cannot post updates. Sorry for the brevity, but sometimes that’s the way it goes. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

I’m your huckleberry.

Finally some real volatility, and if the VIX has anything to say about it, this may just be the beginning. Today’s early move was credited to the employment numbers coming in better than expected, which is certainly a mkt. mover. However, when you see good news being sold, or bad news being bought, that usually means that sentiment is not in-line with the move. Even further, after the close there was a big move down in the futures, and they haven’t bounced back.

The VIX has shown signs of strengthening lately, but today it closed strong for the first time in a while. It appears poised to breakout to the top side of the gray range, and the indicators are slowly turning up. This move up looks like it may continue, maybe not straight up, but trending that way.

The DOW has a clear tombstone doji, a reversal candle, but v is suspect here not giving clear confirmation.

The SPX IS down for second day in a row. If that big top wick wasn’t there today this would be the start of a bull flag formation. But taking the wick into consideration, and the crossing MACD, I think this thing still looks short-term bearish.

The NAS has formed some pretty clear support. In fact, I think if it breaks it, it may be one of those big down days or gaps down right into that up trend line and 20 ma.

This is the ES and you can see what I am pointing out is the similarity between candle formations. I like the v with today’s candle, and it is the opposite of the bottom candle. This is the most bearish looking of the indice charts to me.

HITK looks to be forming a head and shoulders formation here. It will likely find support on the bottom trend line, but I will be looking for it to break to the downside from there.

Existing home sales were good, new home sales were worse than expected. I think the XHB may be poised to pay for that news.

In closing: Tomorrow there is more news, the most important will be the Mich. sentiment numbers due out after the open. I will keenly watching how the mkt. reacts to this news. Will it be wte or bte and what is the follow through move? I think this will give us a hint of the direction we should look for going into the weekend. ( I have written this whole post with my left hand and a baby in my lap, so it is shorter than usual, but you get the idea. If there are any typos it is due to little Jude’s toes on my keyboard). Trade well and prosper. AKOT

A lack of volume leads to a lack of conviction

It is no secret the bulk of the mkt. moves each day is the first hour and a half and the second hour and a half, but it seems to me that it has even been more brutally true this last couple of weeks. Usually you can snipe a play during the lunch hour, or around 2 pm., but it seems to me this mkt. has been very tight during the middle of the session. Today, for instance, by 11 it had moved right into its range for the day and traded from 1113 to 1115 on the SPX for the rest of the day. Now, I won’t sit in front of my computer all day trying to force a trade, so I have been waiting for the open and right before the close to make my trades. It seems to be working right now.

Today we took out some resistance, and I will be watching for follow through with some v tomorrow. This weekend when I was looking through hundreds of charts, I saw a lot of potential head and shoulder patterns setting up. They weren’t there, which is why I didn’t post most of them, but I was watching for them to materialize. If we get more of today’s action, then I will be looking for more breakouts instead of breakdowns.

The VIX continues in its down-trend and there really is not a lot in the way of support. The arrows point out the two levels that kicked off the last move up. The VIX has been very volatile itself and coming off that big down trend, I still think this is forming a bottom, albeit a time-consuming one. So watch $17.50 & $18.50 levels for logical bounce areas.

The DOW has once again butted its head against that long-term down-trend line. Volume is about average, but I think it will need a bit of a v pop to break out. I don’t know if it has the v behind it to make it happen or not, but it is close enough that tomorrow should be the key. I am looking for a close above, not just a move above.

This is the SPX. It had a definite breakout day today, taking out February’s highs. I have highlighted what looks like a very sloppy, mini inverse head and shoulders formation. If I drew the line truly from left neckline to right neckline, the SPX would be right at the bottom of that line today. It looks strong, but often these are re-tested before the true breakout.

The NASDAQ filled the gap and then some. The indicators are trending up, sans the histogram which is rebounding a little of the recent down-trend. This was an impressive move, over 1% up today, exceeding both the SPX and the DOW. I think we have to watch for follow through, perhaps after a re-test.

Check out the resistance line we have been watching for a while now. The UUP reached up and touched it once again before falling. Most of the time, strong resistance like this requires the stock to move down a little and make another run at it, preferably gapping above it. I think the UUP might be there right now. Unless it has a huge v pop, I think it will fall a little before making another run at 23.88, and breaking through.

Here is a clean chart of the QQQQ, you can see the gap above the down-trend line on okay v. None-the-less, this is a breakout and as long as the bottom of that gap holds this should head higher.

The SPY also had a breakout. My only issue here is the declining v into this up move. I wouldn’t mind it so much if it was flat, but it is clearly in a down trend, which creates a divergence. This surely could move up much more, but before I buy long-term I need to see some v behind the move.

I spotted this potential double top this morning. Technically, it did break above the Jan top, and with decent v, so it may be broken. But, I don’t think it is enough yet to call it broken so I am going to continue to watch it. I really like double tops and bottoms for decent size moves.

I twitted this one a while back as a trade off the up trend, and it is making its move. I would love to see some v and the indicators turn up, but this move may be over by then.  A little riskier trade because of that, but I would use today’s low as a stop.

Another breakout with strength. BDK mad a strong move today on average v. I think this move has legs and BDK is heading for $80.

In closing: We have our lightest data day of the week tomorrow, so I will be looking for another trend day. The econ. news continues to be consistently wte, but the mkt. clearly shrugged that off today. I don’t expect that will continue all week, although when we look at the indices, other than the DOW we are seeing breakouts. In my mind, breakouts are best traded on re-tests, so that is what I would like to see. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Synchronized Signals

What a way to kick off the week. I could not see a direction for most of the morning, the breadth, internals, everything was up and down, but that didn’t last too long. Now the NAS already blew last week’s highs out of the water and was the early leader last week. I was looking for that big down day, and now, if we move up a little more, I will instead be looking for some consolidation, then more rally. I really want to be flexible and be able to grab some of these great moves. I missed out on today because I wasn’t ready and wasn’t by my computer when the move went off. You will note I added the MACD to tonight’s charts. I use the MACD a lot, for confirmation and direction, but I rarely put it on my posted charts. I do this just to keep the charts clean and easy to read. If you guys don’t like it, let me know and I will clean them back up, but let’s try it for a bit. On to the charts:

As I talked about yesterday, the bottom of that gap would be a logical place for the VIX to find support, and it did. The next most logical place is near 21.20, the previous low and the 50 ma. We could see a hold / bounce here, but if not we will likely hold in the 21.20 area.

One reason I put the MACD w/ histogram on these charts is to show how I look for confirmations. Check out this beautiful move in unison, its like synchronized swimming. Usually this will lead to at least a little upside momentum. However, at the blue arrow is some very obvious resistance, and I think it will be pretty decent resistance. If we take that out, I think we head towards 11,000.

You can see the same thing on the SPX. I took the liberty of pointing out some of these unison moves and you can see the corresponding SPX move. I see decent resistance at 1105.

Originally I thought this was a cliff walker; moving sideways off the bottom bollinger band. But then it took out the top of that big black candle and is nearing another resistance line. This looks strong, very strong, but strong moves often have a pause and that is what I am watching for.

The RUT looks even more impressive than the NAS. It has already taken out the 20, 50 and previous high. I would be watching for a buying opportunity on any small pullback.

The UUP really gave up the ghost today on light v. It makes sense for this to drop to the 200 ma and hold. I think when we see another big v day, we see another big up day.

I still like BWLD to head to the $40 area. It was weak on a very strong day today, and all the indicators are still signaling a drop. I do think it needs to move sideways or up slightly for a day or two before falling more.

I like this simple chart. Strong up move on earnings, gap down move up a little more the next day, then a bearish engulfing today. I think this is headed to $7.

In closing: The RUT and NAS look very strong, and the SPX and INDU are very near looking strong. I think the key is whether the SPX will take out its previous high. If it does not, then I think it will drag the others down with it. If it does, then I am going long. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Greek salad or just a bunch of Feta?

So that was quite the pop today, a little more than I thought we would see. Maybe after the jobs numbers came out better than expected, but we hit our low of the day right near the open, then at 11 am we had some power buying. The pundits are saying it was the jobs nos. and good news on Greece. It doesn’t add up to me. First of all the v was not spectacular, just average. Second of all, the jobs news came out before the open, and we opened with a definite downward bias. Third of all, the Greece news is old news and has been improving for a few days. At this time I do not have any theories, but I will do some reading tonight. For now we have charts:

Yesterday I commented on how I was surprised that the 200 ma was offering support on the VIX. Well shut my mouth, it finally obliged and gave way. Note we still have not taken out the open of the big white candle, nor filled the gap. There is now a short-term up trend line that is mimicking the 20 ma. However, it is a short-term trend and ergo not very strong. Still it will show us if the VIX is weakening.

The DOW moved up big on avg. volume. However, it closed right on the high of Tuesday. This is about as high as I expected it to go, but the thing to really watch is the 10,300 level. If we close above that, then this short down move may be reversing. Right now I still think this is bearish, and if we get a hanging man or big down day tomorrow, then I will add some short positions.

The SPX is set up the same, except it took out that short-term down trend line today; barely, but it did close above it. Again, we can move up a little more and I will still be looking for a big drop. But if we near the top of that big black candle, then I may have to reevaluate.

The RSI on the NAS is trending up and it had a nearly 1.5% up move today. But it did close right on the top of last Thursday’s candle. If it  closes above 2193, then it has made a new short-term high, and I have to reevaluate again.

The RUT is still in this seven month channel. The curious thing, if it rallies or goes sideways a little more here, and then drops, there will be a h&s formation to contend with. I know that is a lot of “ifs” but I could see it happening very easily. Note the 20 ma crossing beneath the 50 ma.

Here is another thing that doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, the eur/usd has been down 3 days in a row, and broke down from that small wedge. This should coincide with some mkt. drop, but it did not.

The SPY, my short trade, and yes unfortunately I am still short. I should be out, but I am not. I am being stubborn simply because I have a small position and I wanted to add to it. I still like it to drop and drop big when it does, but alas, I may have to just take the loss tomorrow, and then I guarantee it will be down big on Monday.

As I pointed out on the NAS, watch for a break of the last high. But looking at the v, I don’t think that will happen. It looks to be closing in a consolidation range and it is near the top now. A break to the upside with v and the tide will have turned.

FSLR is in a long-term descending pennant. It looked like it was going to be breached yesterday, but it had a strong day today on okay v. The 20 ma is diving hard, but this is playable either way. If it takes out today’s high, go long expecting a 2-3 mos. rise. If it takes out the base, go short for a quick drop. Even better, wait for the re-test.

I don’t think I have ever put this SLAB on here before, but I like it. I like it for a down move to the $43 area right now. But I like it even better after that. Either an ape bounce, or a h&s break. Either way it is a trade.

In closing: Things seem a little out of kilter right now, and I am being stubborn, not wise, stubborn. I will likely pay for my stubbornness as the mkt. is never wrong, no matter what I think. But I am not in a power trade so my risk is minimal at best. You, you be much more disciplined and you trade well and prosper. AKOT