Weekly Stock Market Video

The volume continues to drop, as expected, and with the v dropping the mkt. rises. I continue to watch the eur/usd and it currently is in a uptrend, but that up-trend is coming in the form of a bear flag. There is a lot of resistance nearby for all the indices that would seem to coincide with another breakdown of the euro. There is not a lot of economic news next week, but the heavy days will be W / Th. Don’t forget that Friday is Quadruple witching, which always makes for an exciting week. I expect the volatility to continue and will be watching the key resistance for the next two days, to key another move down.

Weekly Stock Market Video and Commentary

As we finish up May, it has been clearly evident that this mkt. is showing glaring signs of weakness. However, I am still anticipating another run up. I certainly could be way off base, and this may be the beginning of a big drop, but I just think that the bulls have one more shot in them before getting taken out to the woodshed. The 200 ma has been taken out by most of the indices, and looks to now play the role of resistance. However, the more it gets tested AND breached, the less of a factor it will become. There is a distinct possibility of a head and shoulders pattern set up on the SPX, and that would require another leg up from where it is now. All in all, the VIX remains high, the v will likely shrink into the summer, and there is a lot of bad news out there, so I think we will continue to see very volatile days, weeks and months. Now onto this week’s video.

Weekly Stock Market Video 5/23/10

As I skimmed through charts this weekend, something became very evident to me, there are a lot of stocks very close to strong support and there are a lot of stocks with bullish engulfing formations. Therefore, I think we will see a slow down in the current down move, and likely a nice up move this week. Obviously I don’t think every day will be up, but barring any unforeseen news, it looks like we could see a positive week.

Now there is economic news every day prior to the open, so that will be the key to how I trade the day. I will be watching for the initial reaction and looking to see if there is follow through. I have been noticing that the jobs numbers have slowly been worsening, and even some housing numbers are stalling. So the fear could easily ramp right back up again, but I would imagine that would occur closer to the end of the week, with the Thursday claims and then on Friday with the income numbers. I speak in the video a little about the start of a disconnect between the euro and our mkt., so I will be continuing to see if they come back into line, or stay disconnected. It is always nice to have another indicator to watch. On to this week’s video:

Weekly Stock Market Video

Volatility continues to be the story of the day. Further, despite a trillion-dollar bailout, Greece, and frankly the Euro is in a state of flux. All this will continue to add to fear, and continue to make the dollar and gold strong. However, nothing ever moves in a straight line. So I am actually looking for a bit of a reprieve this week, likely on Monday, and a possibly a couple other days depending on the news. It would not surprise me to see an up move on Monday. There is a lot of earnings and economic news this week, but the bulk of  it is from Tuesday – Thursday, so Monday seems to be a logical place for a move up. Further, on Friday there was the big sell off, but if you recall, there was an eod rally into the close. However, we must remember that things are very dicey right now, and any bit of news can spook this mkt. quickly, so I will not be going long at all without some evidence pointing me that way, and I will be nursing the positions the whole time. Now on to this week’s video:

Weekly Stock Market Video

There has been a definite increase in volatility in this mkt. The news is starting to cause moves, and even non-news is causing mkt. moves. As you will see in the video, in the longer term charts, the indices have  come up against resistance; a prime area for a pullback. I am looking for a good move down, and then another rally. It may be the last big rally of the summer, that is still to be determined, but I have a feeling we are going to see some unraveling of the recent good news. And when a mkt. becomes volatile and swingy, unexpected or wte news can be the catalyst for huge down moves. I really think this is a key month, at the end of the month the low summer volume should kick in, and this month will set the tone for the summer. Or in other words, the big money will set the tone for the summer. If they take this month and make it really green, then I think that is the general direction of the summer. But if this month ends down significantly, without that rally, then I think the general tone of the summer will be down. Enough typing, it is video time.

Weekly Stock Market Video

This mkt. continues to rise and continues to defy my call for a pullback. So despite the continued rise, there are still buyers piling it on, and they are making money, and it is easy. But it will not continue for ever. Eventually the big money will start shorting this thing a little, and going into summer is a good a time as any. I am still looking for 12k on the DOW, and I think a multi- day weakness will open the door for some more buyers to help push the DOW that way. As I say in the video, the volume and open interest in the VIX is pretty huge, especially in the May 35/45 and the June 35. The volume is such that it most likely involves some of the big money and it is pointing to a marked increase in the VIX over the next couple of months. Now on to the video:

Weekly Stock Market Analysis and Video 4-11-10

Well we got very close to DOW 11,000, maybe close enough to call it good, but I don’t think so. I think we will see another push up from SPX and COMPQ, which will drag the DOW with it. But, I also think that if we get a big one day move above DOW 11k, then I will be looking for a sell off that same day. If it is a gradual move, then I will be leaning to more upside. There are a lot of logical resistance areas nearby on all the indices, so a move in conjunction would be the best possible scenario for a sell off. I don’t think this will be the full change of direction, just another correction. Next week there is economic data every day, with Monday having the least impact and gaining every day peaking Thursday and Friday. On top of that there are some significant financial earnings and GOOG earnings on the docket, plus more. However, lately earnings haven’t moved the mkt. as much as in the past, but if GOOG comes in to the extreme either side, you can bet that will be a mkt. mover. The same holds true for big financial names. Now it’s video time:

Weekly Stock Market Video 4-4-2010

With the moves we saw last week, it appears volatility may be slightly increasing. However, as you will see in the video, there are signs that this may be a contained volatility. We may be stuck in a range for a while, it may be a very big range but a range none-the-less. For a while it appeared the economic news was turning sour, then this last week it once again started to improve a little, or more appropriately, is coming out a little better than expected. However, unemployment is still incredibly high and I still think this mkt. is clearly over bought. It can continue to be like this for quite some time, but the key to me is to be ready to react when we see signs that it is starting to turn. One way to do this I mentioned last week; watch not so much the news, but how the mkt. reacts to the news. Does it consistently sell good news? To me that is a sign that things are changing. Right now it is still rising on “good” news, so it feels like this mkt. still has some buying behind it. Video time:

Weekly Stock Market Video 3-29-10

First of all, forgive me; but during the video I had the NCAA games on in the background and I am an NCAA junkie, so I was a little distracted. Still the information is there. Basically I am undecided whether or not we are seeing a top or a consolidation for a move upward. If the EUR is any sign, then it looks as if the dollar is going to drop Monday morning, ergo the mkt. will rise. There is a slew of economic data coming out next week, which will also be a mkt. mover. What I will be watching most closely is how the mkt. reacts to bte or wte news, not short-term but throughout the day. There are some really good stock plays out there, but the indices are strictly day trading for me right now. On to the video:

Weekly Stock Market Video 3/21/10

Options expiration was actually a little more exciting than I anticipated. I liked it, it was actually very tradeable. Now we have housing numbers and the healthcare bill to deal with. I think this mkt. is tired, I think it has sprinted the last three weeks and needs a bit of a breather. I think some selling is in order and I think the passage of the healthcare bill will be the catalyst for some selling. I think we saw a hint of that on Friday. I expected Friday to be an up day, a small up day, but instead there was heavy selling evident. I think this may be a tip of the hat to some more selling to come this week. There are some very clear support levels that you will see in the video, but they are not in sync amongst the indices so I will be keeping on eye on them to see which one is the leader. On top of all this, Tuesday and Wednesday are both housing news days which are usually big market movers. On to the video:

Well I am having some problems with Youtube, so this video is from DailyMotion. If I get it working I will replace with the Youtube video.