Let the charts do the talking

I don’t have much to comment on regarding the mkt. The charts pretty much say it all. Again, as I have been saying for a few weeks, volatility is the order of the day, and I don’t see that changing any time soon. So let’s let the charts do the talking tonight:

Although the VIX sold off big today, it is still in a pattern of higher lows. I don’t give VIX trend lines as much weight as indice or stock lines, but they are worth noting.

Now the INDU si showing me a few things here. First it is still beneath the 200 ma. As usual I think it would need a gap up or strong move through the 200 to break back up to the upside. Second, the v is in a steep decline, again as expected post Memorial Day holiday. Third, this is a type of bear flag formation or an ascending wedge, with the 200 ma as the top. So all in all it looks somewhat bearish to me, barring a close above the 200 ma.

The SPX is very similar to the INDU, but notice that its highs are actually declining, unlike the INDU. Because of this it has formed more of a symmetrical pennant or bear flag beneath the 200 ma. It has given two great levels to watch, 1055 and 1110, each a key to the next big directional move.

The NAS, on the other hand has a completely different picture, mainly due to the 200 ma. It seems to have bounced off the 200 ma here, but I noticed something. If you look back to the last three big up moves, they have each shrunk a little in size. So the NAS bulls seem to be losing a little steam. Now if you look from the current down move, this right now looks to be an up move consolidation that will lead to the third move down in this current move.

The RUT looks very similar to the NAS, with a very nice support level to watch. However a close beneath this level is not the big sell signal, the 200 ma still looms large.

So there you have it from my view. I kept thinking that we would see another leg up before the big sell off, however as of right now the charts look pretty bearish to me. If we see some follow through to the upside tomorrow, then perhaps that will be the start of that up move I have been waiting for. However, if I am to be honest, it does not look hopeful to me right now. Again, posts will be sporadic due to soccer. We have a tournament this weekend so I will be out-of-town until Sunday. I should be able to get some charts up tomorrow. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Is tomorrow Thursday?

All right so you are thinking man he missed that call today, but did I really? Remember I had my days wrong and yet I was looking for the gap up off of the good jobs numbers. Well that catalyst wasn’t there today, but it still pretty much ran as expected. Instead of a gap up, it gapped down and then rallied right back up to the zero, before selling off. The exact type of move I was looking for today, but in reverse. Now things have changed a bit for tomorrow. It seems like most of the indices are very close to support and it makes sense to me to see a positive move tomorrow, possibly even a big one. But I would expect more of a moderate move up. I still expect the data tomorrow pre-open to be bte, and depending on what happens with the euro and Greece, that should be enough to push this thing up a bit. I would expect some selling off of any big move up intra-day, so it could be one of those really up and down type of days, really hard to trade intra-day. Oh yeh, remember those SPY calls, well I sold them about 30 minutes in for a .40 loss per, manageable. If I had held em longer I would’ve actually got out even to up a little, but believe me I was happy with what I got, after my idiotic error last night.  Chart time:

Well I thought we would see a black candle today, I just didn’t think it would be this far above yesterday’s white candle. I think this wants to drop a little more, maybe to the 22 area.

The SPX formed a spinning top doji today, not the strongest of reversal signals. It also went below the 50 ma today, but did not reach support. Yet I could still see this bouncing a little from here.

You can see the NAS has pretty much the same thing going on here. Still it dropped a little more percentage wise than the SPX. Usually when it moves out of the bollinger bands like this, it tends to make a move back in, at least a little.

The RUT was once again the leader, falling over 1.5%. It stalled out on the bottom bollinger band and very near the 50 ma. This too looks ready for a little bounce here.

FSYS is sitting on support with bullish engulfing candle. Considering the overall mkt. this seems pretty bullish to me. I would use $27.25 as my stop on a long trade.

CAT too found support, but more on a long-term up trend and off the bottom bollinger band. Easy stop on break of the 50 ma.

In closing: There has a been a significant amount of selling lately, and I am looking for some value buyers to step in soon. If the data is good in the morning, and if things quiet down overseas, then tomorrow could be the day. I will be watching the EURO very closely as it has been tipping the hand of the mkt. all week. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

network news

Well it is official, DOW 11 k has been breached and in case you missed it, it is headlines on the network news. NBC News CBS News

Now let’s think about this a little: This rally has happened on low volume; it has been assumed this was because the 401 k casual crew still has moolah on the sidelines; will they take this news as the “all clear” to get back into the mkt? If so, will the Pros take advantage of this? I assure you that if the first two premises are true, then the last premise will certainly be true. The weekend investor will invest off of what they hear on the news, on CNBC on the weekend radio. They will not do their own research and they DO NOT trade to the downside. The only trade to go up. My guess is that the news will continue to hype the DOW and the recovery and that they will do their best to push it to 12, 000. They want everyone to feel safe, everyone to throw their hard-earned money into the mkt. and push it up until there is no money on the sidelines anymore, and at that time, right then KABOOM. I have assumed this would have happened already, several times, and I was brutally wrong. But I am extremely confident it will happen, I am just not sure when. So until then I will continue to do short-term trades, by minutes, hours, a couple of days, while the only long-term trades I do are not covered in this blog, selling options, that is a whole other category. Anyway, I still think we will have a quick sell off before we get another real push up, but watch v closely, especially going into summer. Typically, If v increases in the summer, something is off and be cautious. Therefore, it would make the most sense for all of this to happen this fall, so that is my long-term thought.

The VIX closed beneath the gray box of support for the first time since 2007, I would say that could definitely be significant. The only caveat here is that it is a reversal candle, and if you look at the VXN it actually rallied quite a bit off the bottom.

This is a weekly of the DJI, or DOW. I put this up to show the breakouts and the next most logical area of strong resistance around 11, 750. I would imagine it would be very, very , very unlikely that we hit that without a significant pullback and I would also think that each next milestone will take longer to achieve, until we reach the top. There we will see a buying frenzy.

The NAS continues to rocket up and is very close to what I think will be the next significant resistance. I thought it would rally up and hit this on the same day the DJI took out 11k, but it did not. That is what I thought would trip the sell off.

This is the SPY. You can see it is achingly, slowly rallying up to near the top of this megaphone pattern. I point out that last time the SPY stayed over-bought for about 9 weeks, with one correction. In this current rally, we have no correction. Also note that the v is decreasing quickly. As you know, I think we are overdue for a correction.

In closing: I will do some stock set ups tonight on Chart.ly and Twitter. But on here, tonight, I wanted to share my long-term thoughts with you. I am open to opposing suggestions, thoughts, or analysis. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

I’m your huckleberry.

Finally some real volatility, and if the VIX has anything to say about it, this may just be the beginning. Today’s early move was credited to the employment numbers coming in better than expected, which is certainly a mkt. mover. However, when you see good news being sold, or bad news being bought, that usually means that sentiment is not in-line with the move. Even further, after the close there was a big move down in the futures, and they haven’t bounced back.

The VIX has shown signs of strengthening lately, but today it closed strong for the first time in a while. It appears poised to breakout to the top side of the gray range, and the indicators are slowly turning up. This move up looks like it may continue, maybe not straight up, but trending that way.

The DOW has a clear tombstone doji, a reversal candle, but v is suspect here not giving clear confirmation.

The SPX IS down for second day in a row. If that big top wick wasn’t there today this would be the start of a bull flag formation. But taking the wick into consideration, and the crossing MACD, I think this thing still looks short-term bearish.

The NAS has formed some pretty clear support. In fact, I think if it breaks it, it may be one of those big down days or gaps down right into that up trend line and 20 ma.

This is the ES and you can see what I am pointing out is the similarity between candle formations. I like the v with today’s candle, and it is the opposite of the bottom candle. This is the most bearish looking of the indice charts to me.

HITK looks to be forming a head and shoulders formation here. It will likely find support on the bottom trend line, but I will be looking for it to break to the downside from there.

Existing home sales were good, new home sales were worse than expected. I think the XHB may be poised to pay for that news.

In closing: Tomorrow there is more news, the most important will be the Mich. sentiment numbers due out after the open. I will keenly watching how the mkt. reacts to this news. Will it be wte or bte and what is the follow through move? I think this will give us a hint of the direction we should look for going into the weekend. ( I have written this whole post with my left hand and a baby in my lap, so it is shorter than usual, but you get the idea. If there are any typos it is due to little Jude’s toes on my keyboard). Trade well and prosper. AKOT

I need some government oxygen for this rally

Shoot, we should have implemented government healthcare years ago seeing how much the mkt. loves it. All the indices are in rocket mode heading skyward, clearly over-bought and clearly not caring. If this keeps up I will need to get me a pacemaker with some of that healthcare. I just hope I am not in a hurry. So other than an incredibly strong day on okay housing numbers, things have not changed much. We are in all out bull mode and resistance is a bit away. Today I am going to concentrate mostly on the NAS as it has been the sector leader. Let’s get started:

I am in a bit of a quandary here. You see the VIX hasn’t yet touched that 16.02 line, but it has been bloody close. Now I expect that line to act as support, but remember this is the VIX, and sometimes it doesn’t like to play by the rules. None-the-less, I do expect this to offer strong support, and remember that last two times it touched it bounced 14 points. I don’t know if it will repeat, but I think it is definitely a possibility.

This looks like most of the indices, a clear breakout today above last weeks stalling point. Actually this presented a classic AKOT entry point yesterday. I should have been long the SPY this morning and I regret to say I was not. In fact I was short the /TF and was able to bank a nice little gain before closing the position. Still, I will be looking for some more long entries in the coming days.

I have oft commented on the NAS being the leader, and it has been. I know the RUT has been even more so, but we are going to concentrate on the NAS today. You can see there is a lot of clear air between here and the 08 highs.Now I know this is not the “HIGH” of 08, but it is the first high off the down trend that showed where clear resistance is. Once again, I expect these highs to offer resistance.

So when I look even closer, I noticed something. The first area in red looks pretty similar to the setup it is currently in. A high, drop, gap then breakout. These things tend to have some type of pattern. So if you note, the first time it dropped 160 points and then rallied that and then and additional 135 points before having a pullback, a total of about 10% move. Also, this was about an 84% move above the breakout vs. the drop. Now a 10 percent move here would be about 230 points. However, I think we will see more. You can see the rally from the drop has been about 194 points, 84% of that would be about 162 points and put this current move at 2489. Now I realize none of this ever works to the number, but it gives us an area and guess what is in that area? The second high of 08 at 2474, which is pretty close, and actually even closer because if you do this yourself you will see my numbers on the chart are off a few points.

What does it all mean? Basically I think we will rally, barring the reality of the world finally setting in upon America, up to the 2475 line and have a pullback there. At least that is what it means to me.

ADBE beat earnings today and looks poised to gap up in the morning. I really like that it is on previous support and a fib line here, and even without earnings I think it is prime for a rally. I would wait for the gap to fill before going long-term long. But if you are a gamer, you can probably trade this intra-day tomorrow and do well.

On the other side of the spectrum is AMZN, the darling of 2010. Notice two bearish engulfing candles in the last 4 trading days, not often a “buy” signal. It looks like it is turning over slowly, a rounded top type of pattern. It will likely stall on the 125 and then if it breaks that I will be looking for gap supports.

In closing: This mkt. is in breakout city and I don’t want to miss the ride. Until proven wrong, my longer term trades will be long. I will be watching the NAS closely to stall out near 2474 and look for a short setup. Tomorrow new homes sales numbers are out and I am anticipating that they will be bte, but I won’t trade those numbers until after they are released. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Expecting boring Expiration

Once again the volatility I expected with the news was nowhere to be found. Perhaps it is because the VIX is so low that we won’t see that volatility again until we see in bounce. Most indices still look very strong, but are now nearing resistance again. I don’t think we will see a top until we see a big day. I think these 30-40 point up days could chug this mkt. up and up and up. However, once again I did notice a lot of bearish engulfing candles when looking at individual stocks. When I look through the sectors, most of them look strong sans energy. Tomorrow is expiration day but there is no scheduled news and unless the healthcare bill miraculously passes, I don’t expect much action tomorrow. I have continued to trade intra-day ranges, and if you trade futures at all, you can look at the /TF or /ES on a 5 min. chart and see trade set ups. Unfortunately, I did not fare well today on my futures trading. I will do better tomorrow, if that mkt. moves at all. Chart time:

The VIX has clearly broke out of the gray square of death and is now nearing what I believe to be very strong support at 16. Notice that the last two times it hit 16 it rallied 14 points, almost 100%.

I am going to use the ETF version of the indices tonight. This is the DIA, you can see it clearly broke above the 61.8% fib on the last rally. The next resistance is at the Jan 08 low.

The cubes have not yet reached the next fib line, but they are very close. Further this coincides with the 11/07 low and 8/08 high so it should be strong resistance.

The SPY is right on the 61.8% fib, which too looks to be decent resistance. However, you can see it still has room to run to reach the top of the megaphone pattern.

Here is a close-up of the SPY showing that it formed a similar candle pattern to a couple weeks ago. Note that other than a lower open, this doji did nothing. Also note the V has increased three days in a row.

The UUP actually moved up decent on a mkt. up day. However, the SPX was down a little, but not reflective of this move. I still think this is set up for a breakout to the upside, maybe not for a few more days.

The IYM had a pretty decent bearish engulfing candle on a small v pop. It has been trending up the 20 ma, and if it drops here, I would expect support off the 20 ma.

The XLE has also formed a pretty strong bearish engulfing candle today, after a day of a big top wick. To me this is even more bearish. I drew out a possible scenario which would lead to a head and shoulders pattern.

CHK is in the energy sector, CHK. This is what I call a breakdown of a pennant. Look at the volume and look at that move today. Often these will be followed by and inside day which is often a great put buying opportunity. Sometimes, if it is really bearish, it will just keep dropping.

In Closing: I expect another small up day tomorrow with not a lot of action. I used to adore options expiration days for their trade-ability, but lately they have been lack luster. By the way, thanks Georgetown and Notre Dame for blowing up my brackets on the very first day! Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Is it rude to disrespect crude?

Once again, pretty much as expected. However the +50 point up move on the $INDU was a little surprising. It was accredited to the CSCO “game changing” news. That seemed to me to be an obvious sell the news type of news, but the selling didn’t happen until the last hour of the day. I looked at the VIX throughout the day, and it started green and finished green. Unfortunately,I don’t know if tomorrow will be any better. I know there is econ news, but it is wholesale and crude inventories. Two – three years ago that was great mkt. moving news, nowadays, not so much. Enough babbling about nothing, let’s look at charts:

This is the VIX on a 60 min. chart. Check out today’s last full hour before the close. That is the biggest increase we have seen in two months. You can also see that it is slowly trending up. I just find it interesting that perhaps we may be seeing a pattern forming, so watch for more selling late in the day, on a strong VIX.

The $INDU made another small body big wick day, not a perfect hammer, but close. It is sitting on support but still stuck beneath the “weak” resistance up trend. If it doesn’t move up this week, then I will be looking for a pretty significant drop next week.

The SPX has a couple of reversal candles in a row now. However, the last time it did this was March 2, and you can see it then formed that bullish wedge that it broke out of.

Again, the $COMPQ still looks strong. The 2327 support has held strong, but it did have a pretty big stinking wick today. Normally when I see those in fast up moves, I get just a little cautious. It is not a reversal candle, but it is often a precursor of a reversal candle. However, I usually look for a pattern of them occurring.

The $RUT too looks strong. It is clearly over bought, but it can clearly stay that way for some time. In fact, today it formed a bullish engulfing on support, which would be a much more powerful candle at the end of a down move.

This is the UUP on a 60 min. chart. I am not sure if this wedge is bullish or bearish. In fact, I don’t have the indicators on here, but they would be no help anyway. This thing is hopelessly sideways and crying for a breakout. It is sitting on the 50 ma and 20 ma which, surprise, are on top of each other. So that should offer support and perhaps give the upside breakout the edge. All I can say is that it really looks like it wants to breakout.

To me, this is a classic way to use indicators. Look at this flag and look at the indicators, now you tell me where you think this might go. The first one to email me with the right answer gets free access to my site for a year!

Now I admit, I would like to see a lot more volume here, but at least there is an increase. This is an earnings move up and a breakout of a rounded bottom. If you like “cheap” stocks you may be able to get .25 out of this, maybe more. If you trade it, I would use $2.15 as my stop. I likely won’t trade it, but I wanted to share it. Note the tons of top wicks on the left side of the rounded bottom formation. That is what I call a pattern of wicks. Note also how quickly the disappeared on the up turn.

In closing: We are seeing a slight increase in volatility, and I think it may continue tomorrow. But ultimately, like today, I wouldn’t expect huge fireworks. Thursday and Friday, well that should be a different story. I will be looking for more of a directional day tomorrow, something like an up open, then early day sell off. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Deja Vu demain?

First, two words; Soccer Practice. My blog scheduling will be sporadic this week and I don’t know how it will be next week. Basketball is over and now I am a soccer dad.

Well today went pretty much as expected, except I thought we would see a small move instead of a mixed bag. As you will see, the NAS actually looked pretty decent, but the others were lagging. I would expect more of the same tomorrow as there are no earth shattering earnings or expected economic news due out. Again, I reiterate, fundamentally I think this mkt. is a house of cards, technically it is pushing higher. Since I am a trader I will trade the moves. I will look for the best set ups, up or down, on my watch list, look at the best option action, then make the trade. Currently, I don’t like to be in my trades for more than three days.

There is not a lot to talk about tonight, as I can see by the three sentences in my trade journal, so let’s look at some charts instead:

I was expecting this support to hold, and it did. However, when I look back at the past moves up, they are almost always pretty strong bullish signals. This is not. Perhaps it will rally a little to fill the gap, but I am not feeling the conviction behind this move that I have seen at other VIX lows.

The DOW continues to push up against the bottom of this channel. Today’s candle is very similar to a pair we saw last week, and the week before. Both broke to the upside. I would expect a similar looking candle tomorrow.

The SPX threw out a clear doji cross, again normally a pretty decent reversal signal. However, I will be waiting for confirmation tomorrow before I decide if it should be heeded.

The NAS was the only one that had a true breakout today. It took out this year’s high, with a small pullback. This actually looks like a good long trade, so let’s look at the QQQQ……

Hmmmm, not quite as strong a chart eh? I love this volume spike on the bottom, those are great confirmations. However, since then v has been slowly declining and still declining into this up move, which is now clearly at resistance. Before I go long, I would want to see a move above this with some v.

The SPY doesn’t look too much more attractive to me. I don’t like being late to the long trade, and without a pullback I will not be going long here. There are plenty of plays to be had.

This thing gaps so much it makes me want to PUK. However, if you have followed me at all, you know these are some of my very favorite trades, the post earnings slide, then rally back into the bollinger bands, and that little sideways movement. I like to trade these setups to the short side. I will use $16.05 as my stop.

This is a pretty decent down trend. I like the v into this move, and I think it may be heading for $2.90.

KGC is in a down trending channel trying to re-test the 200 ma. Today it had a bearish engulfing candle on slightly increased v.  I will be looking to trade to the downside with the 200 ma as my original stop.

Finally let’s finish with a little Texas. TXN has broken out twice of these last two wedges. However, this time I think this move may fail. Note today’s bearish engulfing candle after the breakout and also note the very nice v spike with the move. I have a feeling this thing may be heading to the $22.50 area.

In closing: I will post some more charts on twitter, even some bullish ones. But I expect more of the same tomorrow, and then by Wednesday things should get more interesting. Again, my schedule will be wacky this week, and as always Wednesday night’s post will be short and late. Trade well and prosper. AKOT

Tip your cup and handle.

Okay, so we went into flat mode right off the bat today, a lot quicker than usual. I expected a semi-flat day due to the lack of economic news, but it was brutal. It was brutal enough that I took some time to do some paper trades on the futures, now that is a slow day. However, the end of the day actually provided some action, just a touch, just enough to perhaps give us a glimpse. I really expect more volatility the next three trading days. There is a lot more news coming out, especially Thursday and Friday, and there is still a slug of earnings this week, including some retail, pharma, and medical, all of which can affect the mkt.

I am still perplexed by the lack of volume, therefore I am still a little hesitant to head into breakouts or breakdowns with full force. The following charts will show some breakouts, but they will also show some resistance nearby, so tis a bit of conundrum. Let’s look:

The VIX is entering that range of support I have been talking about. Both the RSI and MACD are still trending down hard. However, there was a decent spinning top doji today, in itself not the strongest reversal signal, but one none-the-less. I would expect a bounce from here to anywhere in the gray rectangle.

This pattern has become evident in almost all the indice charts; the cup and handle. Now technically speaking I would like to see this break out above the highs from late March to confirm this, but that did not happen. In fact, you can see the long-term down trend line held up with the DOW closing beneath it after breaching it forming a tombstone doji. Volume here was not terrible, but definitely not impressive. If this closes above those highs and above that trend line, then I think we at least re-test 10,800.

Another cup and handle with a small breakout. The RSI has moved into overbought territory, but as you can see in the past it can stay up there for a while and be comfy. The MACD and histogram were flattening and heading down, but that move has stalled out a bit as well. Once again this moved stalled out on resistance, and I am not convinced that it will close above it tomorrow.

Go figure, another cup and handle breakout. This one on the NAS is much more convincing than the last two. It took out the previous high, and has moved clear above that down trend line, but in doing so it formed a tombstone doji today. There is no clear resistance right here, but this is a very weak candle formation and one that shouts caution, so be cautious.

As I have said, the RUT has been the leader in this current up trend. Today it took out the long term down trend, but I expect this move to slow down / stall out very soon. I thought we would hit the top of the channel, and we still might, but I don’t think it is necessary for this to turn over.

The XLE has quickly formed a double top on average volume. Another tombstone doji on resistance. Unless there is a v spike tomorrow, or a gap above 57.60, I think this will drop and be a good short play. I will be watching it in my basket tomorrow morning.

LOW has breached this top three times now. Usually I say the third time is the charm, but when you have a overbought RSI, down trending histogram, and a clear volume divergence along with a near bearish engulfing candle, I say the cards are stacked against it. I think the lack of volume will cause this breakout attempt to fail. The good news, if I am wrong then there is a very clear and tight stop, I love that.

This is KRE, I have posted it before, it is the regional bank ETF. RIght now it appears poised to breakout to the upside with declining volume in this non-typical bull flag. Of course if the mkt. tanks, then this too shall tank. But if it stays flat or rises, I think we see a break to the upside.

In closing: The VIX is due for a bounce, the economic news is bearish and there is more of it coming, ergo I am expecting more volatility and more trade setups. I like the breakout patterns on the indices, but I need to see confirmation in the form of volume to be a strong buyer. So tip your teacup and handle, hang on, trade well and prosper. AKOT

A lack of volume leads to a lack of conviction

It is no secret the bulk of the mkt. moves each day is the first hour and a half and the second hour and a half, but it seems to me that it has even been more brutally true this last couple of weeks. Usually you can snipe a play during the lunch hour, or around 2 pm., but it seems to me this mkt. has been very tight during the middle of the session. Today, for instance, by 11 it had moved right into its range for the day and traded from 1113 to 1115 on the SPX for the rest of the day. Now, I won’t sit in front of my computer all day trying to force a trade, so I have been waiting for the open and right before the close to make my trades. It seems to be working right now.

Today we took out some resistance, and I will be watching for follow through with some v tomorrow. This weekend when I was looking through hundreds of charts, I saw a lot of potential head and shoulder patterns setting up. They weren’t there, which is why I didn’t post most of them, but I was watching for them to materialize. If we get more of today’s action, then I will be looking for more breakouts instead of breakdowns.

The VIX continues in its down-trend and there really is not a lot in the way of support. The arrows point out the two levels that kicked off the last move up. The VIX has been very volatile itself and coming off that big down trend, I still think this is forming a bottom, albeit a time-consuming one. So watch $17.50 & $18.50 levels for logical bounce areas.

The DOW has once again butted its head against that long-term down-trend line. Volume is about average, but I think it will need a bit of a v pop to break out. I don’t know if it has the v behind it to make it happen or not, but it is close enough that tomorrow should be the key. I am looking for a close above, not just a move above.

This is the SPX. It had a definite breakout day today, taking out February’s highs. I have highlighted what looks like a very sloppy, mini inverse head and shoulders formation. If I drew the line truly from left neckline to right neckline, the SPX would be right at the bottom of that line today. It looks strong, but often these are re-tested before the true breakout.

The NASDAQ filled the gap and then some. The indicators are trending up, sans the histogram which is rebounding a little of the recent down-trend. This was an impressive move, over 1% up today, exceeding both the SPX and the DOW. I think we have to watch for follow through, perhaps after a re-test.

Check out the resistance line we have been watching for a while now. The UUP reached up and touched it once again before falling. Most of the time, strong resistance like this requires the stock to move down a little and make another run at it, preferably gapping above it. I think the UUP might be there right now. Unless it has a huge v pop, I think it will fall a little before making another run at 23.88, and breaking through.

Here is a clean chart of the QQQQ, you can see the gap above the down-trend line on okay v. None-the-less, this is a breakout and as long as the bottom of that gap holds this should head higher.

The SPY also had a breakout. My only issue here is the declining v into this up move. I wouldn’t mind it so much if it was flat, but it is clearly in a down trend, which creates a divergence. This surely could move up much more, but before I buy long-term I need to see some v behind the move.

I spotted this potential double top this morning. Technically, it did break above the Jan top, and with decent v, so it may be broken. But, I don’t think it is enough yet to call it broken so I am going to continue to watch it. I really like double tops and bottoms for decent size moves.

I twitted this one a while back as a trade off the up trend, and it is making its move. I would love to see some v and the indicators turn up, but this move may be over by then.  A little riskier trade because of that, but I would use today’s low as a stop.

Another breakout with strength. BDK mad a strong move today on average v. I think this move has legs and BDK is heading for $80.

In closing: We have our lightest data day of the week tomorrow, so I will be looking for another trend day. The econ. news continues to be consistently wte, but the mkt. clearly shrugged that off today. I don’t expect that will continue all week, although when we look at the indices, other than the DOW we are seeing breakouts. In my mind, breakouts are best traded on re-tests, so that is what I would like to see. Trade well and prosper. AKOT