All right so I sort of disappeared without notice, but I warned you last month that I am coaching soccer, two teams, and that this blog plays third fiddle to that. I have four more road tournaments so things will be sketchy through July, but I do have some time tonight.
I have found this mkt. to be very tradeable, especially intra-day in the futures. However, the longer term trades are more difficult to game, as they often are in the summer. Right now is no exception. Despite the looming bearishness all over the news, I am still looking for a bounce soon, not a technical bounce, but a relief bounce. Simply said, I think value buyers will have no choice but to eventually step in because they cannot stand to have their $$ on the sidelines. The more sideways this mkt. moves, and with smaller down moves, the more likely that is to happen. That being said, I am starting to doubt whether it will have enough juice to re-test SPX 12k like I thought before. Chart time:
The VIX is grinding its way up. I have not added nor subtracted anything from this chart for a few weeks, and you can see the loose up trend is still in tact. It closed beneath it once in the last 5 days, but has stayed above it for 18 days. A clear sign that volatility is still on the rise.
Yesterday it looked to me like the INDU was ready for a little rally, and most of the day I was right on the $$. Boy did that change quickly. Now it looks to me like it is forming a type of bear flag here. If it stays between 10,075 and 9750 for a couple more days, then I will be shorting for a mid-term move. I do think this will eventually make another run at the 200 ma, and likely fail there.
The SPX looks very similar to the INDU. You can see the breakdown of the last wedge and now it too looks to be forming a bear flag. There is clear support at the 1040 level and resistance at the 200 ma level. So either way I will be looking for a volume induced move before I continue to trade in the direction of the break.
Forget the flag, this thing looks bearish just the way it is. I will use yesterday’s low as support and also as an area for a great short.
This is the most interesting chart I have seen. Again, these are the same lines I have had on here for quite a while and note where yesterday’s low was. Now note today’s high was. Further, this looks like it is laddering down , notice the series of lower highs. If this is to continue, we should be looking for about 5 days of sideways movement and then another move down. If it takes out this support, and not by a little but a close beneath it, then I think we are in for a ride to the downside.
So there you have it. The NAS and RUT are looking pretty bearish, and the others could look that way in a hurry. Jobs numbers come out tomorrow, and although good news may lead to a little pop, a hint of bad news will likely lead to a big drop. I will try to post some stock charts to twitter / chart.ly tonight, but I wanted to get this out first and early. I am leaning to some selling tomorrow, but I am not anticipating a great big down close, not yet anyway. Trade well and prosper, and I will not be posting tomorrow night, nor Friday. I will get the video out Sunday though. AKOT
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